From the Horses Mouth - Race form Analysis Guide for Sunday, 19th August 2018 - By Cyrus Naterwalla
Posted on - 19 Aug 2018
From the Horses Mouth - Race form Analysis Guide for Sunday, 19th August 2018
- By Cyrus Naterwalla
Race No.1 :- The Floods of Fortune Plate – Class V, 4 Years Old & Over – Distance :- 2000M
ALOHA :- 4 year old filly trained by S.K. Sunderji who took her time to come to hand and in spite of working well did not perform in her first several starts. However, she appeared to be finding form towards the end of the Mumbai season and looked a different filly on her reappearance here, coming with a powerful run to score easily over a mile. She has a 6 ½ kilo penalty to deal with for that win but she took her time to get going that day and will likely be better suited by more galloping ground. C.S. Jodha who rode her that day retains the ride and in spite of top weight, she could have more to give and is strongly fancied to provide an encore.
OLLY BOY :- 6 year old gelding from the stable of AdhirajsinghJodha, he is a 29 race veteran and has been successful on 2 previous occasions both over staying trips. His last win was almost 2 ½ years ago and he has been out of form for some time now so he has to prove that he still retains his old ability. However, he did show some spark when making late headway on his reappearance over an inadequate 6 furlongs and his mark has plummeted from a career high of 44 down to 25 so he looks very well handicapped. D.S. Daman now takes over in the saddle from the yard’s 5 kilo claimer, he should relish the longer trip and although taking on younger opposition, deserves each way consideration and can surprise.
ROMANTIC EYES :- Well bred China Visit 4 year old who is relatively lightly raced and unexposed. She began her career with C.D. Katrak, had a brief stint with S.A. Waheed in Mumbai and then moved to the yard of Imtiaz Sait for whom she has had 2 starts so far. Her best performance in her 8 runs so far came over 1200M when she made eye catching late headway to finish a good 3rd but her subsequent starts over longer distances have not yielded much. She showed some improvement when finishing 4th over 1800M to Pathan on her seasonal reappearance and is likely to improve for that run. She tackles this 2000M trip for the first time, the booking of A. Sandesh suggests that connections fancy their chances and we may not have seen the best of her yet so if building on that last effort, she looks to have an excellent chance to score and is one of the main contenders.
SMOKEY ROSES :- Another extremely interesting contender this 5 year old mare by Arazan out of Mitzvah has been untried in her 10 starts till date and has been skilfully brought down to what looks a very attractive mark. She has mainly been declared with feeble riders upto now but has been working well for some time now and was given a lung opener earlier in the season to blow away the cobwebs. She continues to work well, is stepped up to this 2000M trip for the first time and K. Nazil takes over in the saddle from R. Ajinkya. She has no form whatsoever to recommend her chances but most likely is being tried for the first time today and is an unknown quantity who could spring a surprise and looks an interesting dark horse at a price.
STAR ACE :-Consistent but exposed 6 year old mare from the Dallas Todywalla yard, she is a battle hardened handicapper who has already had 31 starts winning twice and should stay this far although her previous 2 efforts over 2000M have been very disappointing. She finished a distant 2nd to Aloha over a mile earlier in the season and does not look likely to reverse that form in spite of the winner’s penalty. Neeraj Rawal has been booked to ride and the yard looks to be in good form of late but she looks more likely to battle it out for minor honours and could run into a place
CONCLUSION :- This should be primarily between the two 4 year olds – impressive last outing winner Aloha and the unexposed and potentially better than she has shown Romantic Eyes who looks to have improved in the care of Imtiaz Sait. The latter is marginally the selection in the hopes that she will improve on her last effort. Smokey Roses is also unexposed and is an interesting outsider for those seeking more value
Race No. 2 :- The Fair Haven Trophy – Class I & II – Distance :- 2000M
PALATIAL :- Dickey legged 6 year old gelding trained by S.A. Waheed, he was a late bloomer finding form mainly as a 5 year old and has done impressively to win 6 times from his 26 starts considering that he was untried in his first 8 runs. He seems to be short of Group ability as he has been well beaten in most of the Terms races that he has attempted but is a solid handicapper and is respected now eased back into a handicap. He finished well down the field in his last 2 starts in Mumbai so he does have a bit to prove and usually needs a couple of runs to hit full form every season so may just need this. However, the booking of Neeraj Rawal is a positive and he is dangerous to ignore in this company so is given a small outside chance if fully wound up first time out.
RAEES :- 5 year old gelding trained by Imtiaz Sait who quickly developed into a solid stayer, winning 5 races in a short span of time including The Suresh Mahindra Trophy on this track last season. He was taken to Kolkotta in the winter but either went off the boil or was not suited by the track and finished well beaten and behind Winter Renaissance in The QE2 Cup and The Stayers Cup and now needs to bounce back from a poor last 6 months. He may have been freshened up by the break and has been working well of late and C.S. Jodha has been booked to ride. However, the yard appears to have a stronger candidate in Caprisca and he too may be going in for a lung opener with the ultimate aim the defence of his title in The Suresh Mahindra. Each way contender.
WINTER RENAISSANCE :- 2nd of 3 runners for the Imtiaz Sait yard and she has already had a run this season so should be the fittest of the bunch. She has a curious record of 2 wins from 18 starts as her better performances have come in losing causes although she did impress when winning the QE2 cup in Kolkotta where she had Raees well behind. She too is much more effective over longer trips and finished 5th of 7 to Selfie Star in the Eve Champion Trophy just 8 days ago. A. Sandesh who rode her that day keeps the ride but she too looks to be preparing for the staying events ahead and is likely to find this trip on the sharp side.
CAPRISCA :- Well bred 4 year old who is clearly the main hope from the Imtiaz Sait yard and while not quite being able to hit the mark in the Classics, finishing 3rd in the Pune Derby and 6th in the Indian 2000 Guineas, the rest of his record is quite excellent and he was an impressive winner of his last 2 starts in handicap company and appears to be progressing nicely. He was been working very well in the build up to this race, P. Trevor has been booked to ride and the only cause for concern is the poor current form of the yard who have not quite taken off during the current campaign.
UNCLE SCROOGE :- Versatile but eccentric 6 year old gelding trained by M.K. Jadhav, he has won 4 of his 29 starts, but has placed on several other occasions and is effective over distances ranging from 7 furlongs to 2400M. He made an eye catching start to the season over a mile, finishing on like a bullet from the rear to be 3rd behind Auburn and Selfie Star who has gone on to claim the Eve Champion Trophy since, franking the form. On a direct handicap line through Selfie Star he appears to be closely matched with Caprisca and does have the benefit of fitness today. N.S. Parmar takes over in the saddle from D.A. Naik, and if Caprisca is slightly rusty or off his game today, then Uncle Scrooge could very well prove to be a big danger.
CONCLUSION :- Although the 4 year old Caprisca should win this comfortably if at his best, he is having his first start of the season, the yard is yet to get off the mark in Pune and he is likely to start at very cramped odds. Hence, in terms of value it may be worth taking a chance on the enigmatic Uncle Scrooge who caught the eye finishing on late to be 3rd over a mile with a feeble rider up. The runner up Selfie Star went on to claim The Eve Champion Trophy next time out giving substance to the form, he has a fitness advantage over his rival today and on a line through Selfie Star, is very closely handicapped with the selection.
Race No. 3 :- The Brunello Plate – Maiden 3 Year Olds – Distance :- 1200M
CHOSEN ONE :- Relatively exposed Surfrider gelding from the yard of S.K. Sunderji, he has had 5 runs till date and has not really looked to be progressing in any of them. He made his debut on the Pune track over 1000M on the opening day but seemed to lack speed when finishing a distant 4th to Enchanted with the same rider up. He should be fitter and sharper for the run and the return to 1200M should suit. However, he is taking on a couple of lesser raced and more unexposed 3 year olds and looks more of a place contender in this company. He should run well but 1 or 2 of these are likely to be too strong for him today.
PABLO :- Well bred and improving full brother to Confiancewho has raced twice in Mumbai and showed good improvement from his first run to second. Making his debut over 1000M in February, he finished on to be a good 3rd to Impala and Run Forest Run and built on that effort next time out when upped to this trip and finishing on again to be runner up to Iron Age. He is likely to have improved further and strengthened over the summer and after being ridden by S. Zervan on his two starts in Mumbai, A. Sandesh now takes over in the saddle. A paddock check is advised to ascertain his well being after the long break but he has been working well and looks a leading contender to make it 3rd time lucky if he is fit and ready to go.
CHEZZA :- Once raced Phoenix Tower filly who is a full sister to the speedy Elysee and made a satisfactory debut back in Mumbai over 1000M when finishing a good 3rd behind Eden Rock over 1000M. She is sure to have learnt from the experience and has been working pleasingly in the morning gallops. She looks entitled to improve for the run, S. Zervan takes over in the saddle for Amyn Merchant and with the Faisal Abbas yard in good form at present, she looks to have strong each way claims and cannot be ignored.
LETHAL STEPS :- Twice raced Phoenix Tower filly trained by Altaf Hussain she made her debut also over 1000M in Mumbai and had a nice educative run finishing 4th to Charles Bridge. She showed she had improved over the summer when running a good race on her reappearance over 1400M, taking over the running at the top of the straight and kicking on to hold all bar the impressive winner Awesome One. The drop back down to 1200M should suit her, she has a fitness edge over her main rivals and P. Trevor has been booked to ride. She appears to have maintained her form and fitness and looks a leading fancy to score today.
OUTRAGEOUS :- Got abroad debutant from the powerful Pesi Shroff yard she looks an interesting contender out of an Australian sire Lonhro and has been given a sufficient amount of prep work to be fit enough first time out. However, her track work suggests that she is yet not fully wound up and may just need this educative run. N. S. Parmar has been booked to ride and runners from the yard must always be respected but they have gotten off to a slow start as well this season and hence she may be more of a place candidate today
CONCLUSION :- This looks to be a straight fight between Pablo and Lethal Steps with the former marginally preferred on form while the latter has a fitness advantage having already run well this season.
Race No. 4 :- The Panchshil Million – Class III & IV – Distance :- 1400M
GALLANT KNIGHT :- Well performed 4 year old gelding trained by Karthik G who has run 10 times till date and has managed to win just once but has run well in defeat on several occasions. He has been mainly highly campaigned for much of his career and has been in cracking form since reverting to sprint handicaps. He ran impressively on his seasonal reappearance over 1000M, finishing on strongly under a big weight to be runner up to Princess P and he will be better suited by this longer trip. He has to concede weight all around again today and has not been handed the best draw in Stall 12. A. Imran Khan who rode him that day is up again today and he looks a serious contender but is faced with a tough task against many progressive 4 year olds.
FOREST FAIRY :- Another well bred and well performed 4 year old filly trained by BezanChenoy she has yet to finish out of the first three in her career with 3 wins from her 6 starts so far. She was a one time Classic hopeful but was forced to miss the Classics due to setback after winning her lead up race over 7 furlongs impressively and she returned in March to score a solid success over Star of Thea over this trip so she comes into this race bidding for a hattrick. She was been well prepared for her reappearance run and moved well in a Mock Race a couple of weeks ago. Y. S. Srinath has been flown down to take the ride and she looks primed to have a bold show and is greatly respected as one of the leading contenders.
TANJO :- Yet another in the list of lightly raced and progressive 4 year olds, this one is trained by NosherCama and will be ridden by retained jockey P.S. Chouhan. After having 2 easy runs during the last Pune season, she really came into her own in the Mumbai season, scoring effortless back to back wins, the 2nd of them coming over this trip and narrowly failed to complete her hattrick when just going down fighting to the classy Masterofbalantrae. She too has been judiciously prepared with this event in view and went a good Mock Race a couple of weeks ago. She is another who looks to have the scope to improve again and runs with a strong each way chance.
GOSHAWK :- Progressive 4 year old from the M.K.Jadhav yard who was an expensive failure on his first couple of starts in Western India over sprints but seemed to come into his own when upped to middle distances and reverting to hold up tactics. He was a fluent winner over 2000M on his penultimate start and then went on to finish runner up to Texas Gold when an odds on favourite over 1800M last time out. He appears to be a quirky sort who needs things to go exactly right for him but clearly has ability when at his best. This trip is likely to be on the sharp side for him and although A. Sandesh has been booked to ride, he may not be suited by the sharp Pune track and looks more of a place prospect today. Considered.
COSTA BRAVA :- Lightly raced and very highly regarded colt from the Pesi Shroff yard, he has run just 4 times so far and is probably yet to come fully into his own. An impressive maiden winner on this track last September, he was thought good enough to contest the Indian 2000 Guineas on just his 3rd start and without a preparatory race and understandably was found wanting but did kick on to finish 5th behind the likes of Castlebridge, Rochester and Perfect Star. He then was upped to 9 furlongs where he came with a powerful run from the rear but still looked inexperienced when drawing alongside the leader and was out battled by the more experienced Gloriosus, ending up a good 2nd in a fast time. He is having his first start since then dropped back down to this trip but appears to have been well prepared and did move well in a Mock Race recently. He is open to plenty of improvement, P. Trevor takes the ride and he looks to have an outstanding chance to return to winning ways and is a leading fancy.
RUN FOREST RUN :- The only 3 year old in the field and looks to have been handed a very stiff mark on handicap debut but is in receipt of plenty of weight from the older horses. He has run 3 times till date, all over sprint trips and has performed admirably. His first two starts were both over 1000M and he finished runner up on both occasions to two speedy types, going down to the unbeaten Columbianaprincess on debut and then just failing to hold off Impala next time out. Upped to 1200M on his last start, he scored a bloodless maiden victory easily accounting for Enchanted and is now stepped up to 1400M. He is another who looks likely to have improved over the summer and is now being ridden by H. Zeeshan. He looks to have a tough ask on the face of it but merits each way consideration running at a feather weight.
CONCLUSION :- Highly competitive as can be expected but Costa Brava is the selection to live up to the high opinion of his trainer who entered him in the 2000 Guineas on just his 3rd start. He looks to have tremendous scope to improve and should revert to winning ways. Forest Fairy appears to be the main danger while many of the others can also stake claims
Race No. 5:- The Gaea Plate – Class IV & V – Distance :- 1600M
DAUGHTEROFTHESUN :- Got abroad 4 year old filly trained by MaleshNarredu, she has run 11 times till date and has managed just one win which came over course and distance last season. She too was thought to be a Classic type and has been quite highly campaigned in her limited career, but ran disappointingly in her last 2 starts in handicap company, last time out over this trip. She may have been freshened up by the break now and looks to be on a reasonable mark at present. Yash Narredu takes the ride today and in this company, she looks to have a strong chance and could bounce back to winning ways.
WE BREAK THE RULES :- Exposed 4 year old handicapper who moved recently from C.D. Katrak to Dallas Todywalla but has managed just 1 win from his 13 starts so far although he has placed on 7 occasions. He is usually quite consistent in handicaps but does not appear to be progressing like he should and was disappointing when well fancied in a similar contest last time out but could only finish 6th behind Kimberella. He may have needed the break and could go well fresh again and retained rider P.S. Chouhan is in the saddle. He may need this run as he has limited prep work but looks an each way player and should not be ignored with yard in good form.
OCTAVIUS :- Highly rated 3 year old colt who is open to plenty of improvement having just his 3rd career start and begins handicaps on what looks a relatively fair mark. He made a winning debut over 1200M beating Hope and Glory comfortably which is decent form and probably set his sights too high next time out when entered in the Poonawalla Multi-Million and understandably finished well beaten. He has been moving very well in his morning workouts and with S.A. Amit in the saddle, looks a strong fancy to resume his upward curve. He has to prove that he stays the mile trip well but if he gets it then he looks hard to beat today.
STAR ALIGNED :- Lightly raced got abroad from the yard of Pesi Shroff who has had just 2 runs and looks to have tremendous scope for improvement. Both her previous runs have come over 7 furlongs, making her debut in January when she finished on to be a close 4th to Rain Dance and then showing some improvement next time out when ending a close 3rd behind Star of Thea. She was given an easy Mock Race behind Costa Brava and has been working very well since then suggesting that she has improved. She may be needing this first run this season as after having been ridden by A.Sandesh in her 2 earlier starts, she will be ridden by S. Zervan today as A. Sandesh appears to prefer Flammeus. She deserves each way consideration and is likely to improve but may just need this lung opener today.
FLAMMEUS :- Well bred and potentially smart 3 year old filly trained by HosidarDaji who is again relatively lightly raced and is expected to improve. She made her debut in Mumbai over 1400M finishing a fair 5th to Spitfire and did not race again that season. She was given a lung opener again over 7 furlongs on the Pune track with K. Nazil on board and ended up 7th of the 8 runners behind Frieze. Her form is nothing to go by until now but she has been working extremely well since the last run suggesting that she has improved and the fact that Sandesh has opted to ride her instead of Star Aligned looks quite significant. HosidarDaji usually does quite well with the limited stock that he gets from the Dhunjibhoy’s and hence this filly merits serious consideration today and is likely to leave her previous runs well behind.
I AM THE WAY :- Formerly known as Master Sergeant this 5 year old from the yard of Trainer Vinesh had run some good races in defeat in the past and had been knocking on the door towards the end of the Mumbai season but was still a maiden after 17 starts. Reappearing with a new name on the Pune track, he began to gallop very late in the contest and got up literally in the last stride over 7 furlongs to pip the firm favourite Brave and score and overdue maiden success and he should gain confidence from the win. He has only been handed a 4 kilo penalty for the win and 2.5 kilos are offset by his rider H. Zeeshan’s claim so he still looks quite well in on the scale. His scope for improvement is limited but he looks to be in good form and off the low weight, he should make an effort to repeat.
CONCLUSION :- Octavius is held in very high regard and is selected to get his career back on track after a tough assignment in the Poonawalla Million last time out. Daughterofthesun may yet to have give off her best and looks a danger as does the lightly raced and potentially smart Flammeus
Race No. 6 :- The Thanda Plate – Class IV, 5 Years Old & Over – Distance :- 1000M
SPORTO :- 5 year old gelding trained by AdhirajsinghJodha who was won 2 of his 19 races so far, his last win coming last time out over 1200M when he showed good speed to win from end to end in a similar contest. The shorter trip should not trouble him too much and his 6 kilo penalty is almost completely negated by his rider’s claim. He appears to have maintained his form and fitness since the win and taking on older company again, he looks to have an excellent chance to repeat.
PHILADELPHIA :- 5 year old mare trained by Dallas Todywalla who does not have a convincing record of just a solitary win from her 17 starts till date and mainly seems to be handicapped upto the hilt at present. Her win came back in November over 1200M but she has been struggling to progress since then and has failed to impress in several outings since. She may have been freshened up by the drop to the minimum trip and the booking of Neeraj Rawal is a positive so she merits each way consideration and could make the frame if in a galloping mood.
BLAZING STEPS :- Speedy 6 year old from the yard of Altaf Hussain who was in cracking form during the recent Mumbai season and after a string of 2nd placed finishes in similar contests, was a decisive maiden winner over this trip. He has had a lung opener in Pune to blow away the cobwebs and the switch from Tograllu to K. Nazil is a positive. He has been working extremely well since the run and looks to have a strong chance to return to winning ways.
GLORIANA :- 5 year old maiden trained by NazakChenoy, she has run 9 times till date mainly over sprints and has been knocking at the door for some time now without quite being able to get her head in front. She did finish a close 3rd to Locarno over this trip on her penultimate run and has had a run already this season, finishing a fair 3rd over 1200M behind Sporto last time out. The switch from P. Trevor to N.B. Kuldeep is a negative but she should strip fitter for the run and has bagged the No. 1 draw. She looks to have the speed to tackle this longer trip and is another who runs with a good each way chance in this company.
BEYOND FORCES :- 6 year old mare trained by Mansoor Shah who was in good form during the Mumbai season and scored a decisive first success on her last run of the season, scoring easily by 4 lengths. She has been given a run already this season to get her fit and drops back to the minimum trip with H. Zeeshan taking over in the saddle. She should be fitter and sharper for the run and if she is back to the form that she was in during the latter half of Mumbai then she should go very close.
FURIOSA :- Has already run twice this season and has been in good form, finishing runner up to Skysurfer on the opening day and quickly making amends in a similar contest when winning from end to end and holding off Arc of Passion to score by half a length. She has only been penalized 4 kilos for the win and the switch from Parbat Singh to A. Sandesh is a big positive. She comes into this race at the top of her game and should make a brave bid to repeat.
ANGEL THEA :- Sparingly raced maiden 5 year old from the BezanChenoy yard who seemed to have gone off the boil in her last couple of starts and is returning from an extended absence having last raced in mid February. He best run previously came over 6 furlongs but she should have the speed to tackle this trip and the booking of Dashrath Singh catches the eye. She has dropped to a very handy mark in the scale and could spring a surprise if she has her galloping shoes on
CONCLUSION :- A tricky finale and last outing winners Furiosa and Sporto both stand a good chance to repeat and are short listed along with Gloriana and Blazing Steps
(Disclaimer : Views are entirely that of the correspondent only and RWITC takes no responsibility for the same)
