From the Horses Mouth - Race form Analysis Guide for Saturday, 4th August 2018 - By Cyrus Naterwalla
Posted on - 03 Aug 2018
From the Horses Mouth - Race form Analysis Guide for Saturday, 3rd August 2018 - By Cyrus Naterwalla
Race No. 1 :- The Arts Plate – Class IV & V – Distance :- 1600M
KANCHENJUNGA :- She is a fashionably bred and twice raced 3 year old filly who is one of 3 runners from the Pesi Shroff yard for this opener and appears to be the most fancied of the trio. She is a full sister to Mariska also trained by Pesi Shroff and a half sister to Caprisca who has performed with merit for Imtiaz Sait in Western India. She is clearly held in very high regard as Pesi choose to debut her in The Breeders Produce Stakes where she was clearly in need of the run but still ran respectably to end up 5th to Pioneer and Mozart who were the leading 3 year olds at that stage. She showed the benefit of that experience next time out when scoring a very stylish pillar to post 5 length victory over her more fancied stable companion Nobleman, again over 7 furlongs. She did not appear to beat too much that day but her manner of victory was fluent and the time was a good one. She is likely to have progressed significantly from that run and is still open to plenty of improvement on just her 3rd start. The step up to a mile should suit her, she has been given an adequate amount of work and with P. Trevor booked to ride, she looks to be the one with the best chance to score here and may take some beating.
KOMANDANT :- Aged 7 year old gelding from the stable of S.A. Waheed, he has had 24 starts till date over varying trips and has managed to score on 2 occasions, one of those being last time out where he took advantage of his plunging handicap mark to score over 2000M in Class V, beating Lucky Luciano by 2 lengths. The drop in trip does not look ideal for him and although he only incurs a 4 ½ kilo penalty for the win, he is fully exposed and is not likely to improve a great deal. The booking of P.S. Chouhan suggests that connections are all out to win but it looks a tough task against the youngsters and he may sneak into the frame at best. He is a total outsider who has been working well.
RAISE A GRAND :- Grey 4 year old filly by Ravel from the small yard of Trainer Vinesh and she benefitted from a change in name when scoring a wide margin victory over 1400M in the lower class, easily beating Angel Coin by almost 8 lengths. The handicapper has handed her a stiff 6 ½ kilo penalty for that win but she looks open to further progress and should gain confidence from the win. Overall a winner of 1 race from 9 starts, she is likely to improve further and cannot be totally discounted in this field although she does need to step up on her previous form. In form apprentice K. Nazil takes the ride and she looks a value each way contender.
FENCING :- Enigmatic 5 year old mare from the in form stable of AdhirajsinghJodha, She is a winner of 2 of her 13 starts, her wins coming over a mile and 7 furlongs respectively and she seems to get on well with D R Shubham who rode her to her last victory. She likes to be delivered late from way off the pace and both her wins have come in that fashion, her last victory 3 starts ago when edging out Lorraine and Star Scholar. She has not run badly in both her subsequent starts over this trip, finishing 7th but not beaten far on both occasions. The yard appears to be in red hot form at the moment and she looks an interesting outsider.
MOMENTUM :- Another well bred and lightly raced individual from the Pesi Shroff yard, this one is a half brother to the Classic winner Tiger Tops and coincidentally is also a half brother to Red Indian competing in the same race. Appearing to want distance trips from an early stage, he made his debut over a mile in Class IV and was given an easy run, ending up 6th behind Star Bright. He showed some improvement for that effort next timeout a month later when finishing runner up to Kimberella over a mile, coming with a strong run in the straight before hanging in and still looking inexperienced. He too should improve considerably for that effort and is expected to give a better account of himself today. Y.S. Srinath has been flown down to ride, he too has been working well and looks a strong contender to score here although stable mate Kanchenjunga may just have the edge.
CONCLUSION :-Pesi Shroff has a strong hand here with 2 potentially smart and unexposed types in the form of Kanchenjunga and Momentum and the race should be between this pair. The former is given a slight edge but just that and it would be no surprise if Momentum were to score. Raise A Grand won well last time out and could be of each way value
Race No. 2 :- The Nelson River Plate – Class IV & V, 4 Years Old Only – Distance :- 1400M
TIMELESS DEEDS :- 4 year old Varenar filly from the Narendra Lagad stable, she is a winner of 2 of her 18 starts till date, both her previous wins coming over this trip and she has now dropped down to her last winning mark. Her last win came on this track back in October and although she has been totally out of form since then, she has been showing out very nicely in her morning work in the last few weeks suggesting that she may be coming to hand. She looks to be well placed on the scales on the pick of her old form and the booking of Dashrath Singh is encouraging. Provided that she is able to reproduce her excellent trackwork and has regained her old form, she is given a strong chance to score in what looks an open contest.
GOLDEN WEAVER :- Well bred and sparingly raced 4 year old trained by Hosidar Daji, he appears to be something of an enigma, having run 5 times till date and showing precious little on the other 4 occasions but showing completely different form on his 2nd start when he scored a fluent success over course and distance, winning by almost 4 lengths from Vengeance is Mine. His 2 subsequent runs in Mumbai were very poor and he ran a forward race earlier this season, hitting the front and kicking on to finish 4th to Angels Touch. He could improve for that forward run and has been working well for some time now and K. Nazil takes the ride. It is hard to recommend him as he does not seem to have come totally right just yet but if he reproduces that winning effort then he could trouble them all here.
ANGEL’S HARMONY :- From the yard of Altaf Hussain, she had been running promisingly on a number of occasions without failing to get her head in front but finally managed to succeed at the 12th attempt when totally unfancied on the opening day of the season, dictating the pace from the start and galloping all the way to the line. She has incurred a 5 ½ kilo penalty for the win but the booking of A.M. Tograllu replacing G. Amit is a bit perplexing as his win record on this track is poor. She is likely to have gained confidence from the win though and should make a brave effort to repeat so must be considered.
MERVEILLEUSE :- Smartly bred got abroad filly from the Pesi Shroff stable, she has raced just twice and is open to plenty of improvement. She made an eye catching debut over a mile back in December when finishing on from the rear to be a good 3rd to Albareto and was thrown in the deep end next time out when entered in the Indian Oaks where she appeared to be out of her depth but ran respectably to finish 6th to Manifold. She has been rested and given time to improve since then and now reappears at a much more realistic level. The 7 furlong trip will be on the sharp side for her but she looks a quality filly and may be too classy for this lot of exposed handicappers. Her prep work has been decent, Neeraj Rawal takes the ride and she is greatly respected and could begin the season on a winning note.
BLACKJACK :- Another lightly raced and well bred sort from the Noshir Cama yard, she has run thrice till date and has performed respectably on all 3 occasions although the runs have been well spaced out and she appears to have not quite come to hand just yet. She made her debut back in April 2017, appearing in a 6 furlong maiden and finishing a fair 4th to Cambridge. She reappeared next time out on the concluding day of the Pune season, again running a decent 4th to Aurelia with Angel’s Harmony in 3rd that day. Her most recent run came early in the Mumbai season and she showed some improvement to finish up 3rd to Intrepid but has been off the track again since then. Her will clearly have fitness to prove reappearing after and extended absence and a paddock check is clearly advised. However, she has been working quite well and if she looks the part in the paddock then she is in unknown quantity who could be better than her current handicap mark. P.S. Chouhan takes the ride and she cannot be ignored.
TRUE GRIT :- Excellent Art colt trained by S.K. Sunderji, he seems to be taking time to come to hand and has raced 6 times so far without much success. However, he has raced exclusively over sprint trips till date and steps up to a middle distance trip for the first time. He was given a lung opener over 1200M earlier in the season and ran a forward race to finish 4th to Sassy Lass. He is a half brother to the classy Ice Glacier who won the Mysore Derby and the Bangalore Oaks so on pedigree he is likely to relish the longer trip and has been working well. C.S. Jodha takes the ride and if improving for the longer trip, he could be a major player.
CONCLUSION :- This looks highly competitive but a chance is taken on the lightly raced Merveilleuse who is taking a significant drop in Class after contesting the Indian Oaks last time out and may be too classy for this lot. True Grit is expected to run much better over a more suitable trip while Ace Two Three and Golden Weaver are also potential improvers
Race No. 3 :- The Kia Ora Plate – Class III & IV – Distance :- 1400M
BUNTING :- Intense Focus 4 year old filly from the yard of M.K. Jadhav, she has an excellent overall strike rate of 3 wins from 9 starts and looks to be progressing nicely with her racing. She scored back to back wins on this track last season and then ran a fine close 3rd to Cambridge and the reopposing Bottega Louie early in Mumbai but seemed to lose her way after that and ran poorly on her next couple of starts. She reappeared after a short break and seemed to be back on track, last time out scoring fluently from Collegium in the same grade. However, she does have top weight to defy under a stiff 7 kilo penalty and may find weight to be a stopper against some potentially smart types lower in the scale. K. Nazil has been booked and his claim will no doubt help so although she must come into consideration she may find one or two too good today.
BOTTEGA LOUIE :- 4 year old filly from the S.K. Sunderji yard she has raced 7 times till date and her form figures of just 1 win do not quite do her justice. She was a decisive winner over Cambridge and Bunting early in the Mumbai season but was stood down in the Stewards room and she looks to have an excellent chance on that form. She did not appear to be at her best when failing as an odds on favourite last time out and will no doubt have been freshened up by the break. C.S. Jodha takes the ride, her lead up work has been exemplary and she looks a strong contender to return to winning ways today and is greatly fancied.
STAR COMRADE :- Enigmatic but inconsistent 5 year old gelding sporting the famous silks of Dr. M.A.M. Ramaswamy, he is a 22 race veteran and has finished runner up on as many as 7 occasions but has managed to win only twice. His form during the Mumbai season has been patchy with just 1 good effort when finishing a 2 length 2nd to Chaplin over 6 furlongs but he has run poorly on either side of that effort so is not convincing. He has been working well of late and the booking of A. Imran Khan is encouraging so although he could be a factor if running upto his best, he looks more likely to fight it out for minor honours today.
PIONEER :- Out of Indian Oaks winner Riyasat, this MaleshNarredu ward was considered to be one the leading 3 year olds after winning his first 2 starts impressively, the 2nd of those in the Breeders Produce Stakes and he was the local favourite for the Poonawalla Multi Million but ran way below par finishing a dismal 7th. He was scoped after the race and found to have had an infection which could be an excuse but his last run in Bangalore was very poor and he finished a well beaten 8th over 1400M so he clearly has questions to answer. He has moved well in his last couple of workouts so he may be coming back to top form and it is too soon to be writing him off just yet. P.S. Chouhan takes the ride and he is sure to have a huge following but at the forecast odds he may not be value and is best watched today.
HARMONYOFTHESEA :- Well bred Multidimensional filly trained by Imtiaz Sait, she too unfortunately does not appear to be consistent although does possess a lot of ability. She is a winner of 2 of her 7 starts, her maiden success coming over 1200M on this course last season but she then ran 3 poor races before repeating her success over this trip back in March, coming with a late run to pip Arc Shine in the lower class. She finished a close 3rd to Star of Thea last time out over this trip and usually goes well fresh so should be raring to go. P. Trevor, who rode her to her last victory takes the ride again today and she is another who must come into consideration and looks to have a strong chance.
CONCLUSION :- Bottega Louie is better than her form figures suggest and fresh from the summer break and working impressively, she is selected to get back to winning ways. With Bunting possibly weighted too heavily and Pioneer with a bit to prove after 2 below par efforts, another progressive filly Harmonyofthessea appears the main danger with P. Trevor in the saddle
Race No. 4 :- The Radical Force Plate – Class II and III – Distance :- 1600M
SELFIE STAR :- Well performed half sister to Silver Beauty from the Dallas Todywalla yard, she is a winner of 4 of her 11 starts and is clearly one of the above average 4 year olds having won from distances ranging from 1400 to 2400M. The mile trip appears well within her compass and she has been showing out well in the morning trials but she is top weight against some good horses and may find it difficult to concede weight all around. Neeraj Rawal has been booked to ride and she must be considered but may find one or two of these getting the better of her today.
CARBONARA :- 5 year old handicapper from the Imtiaz Sait yard he has a good career strike rate of 5 wins from his 19 starts till date but appears to have been handicapped upto the hilt at present and may need to unlock some more improvement if he is to progress further. His last win came back in September on this track but he has struggled in his 4 runs during the last Mumbai season, and appears held by Turning Point and Odessa on the last run. He could possibly have been freshened up by the break, has been working well and with A. Imran Khan up, could fight it out for the minor places.
TURNING POINT :- Wonderfully consistent 4 year old filly from the S.K. Sunderji yard who has finished in the first two in 7 of her 10 starts till date, with 4 wins to her name. She has a tendency to start slowly from the gates which is a crucial element to consider and also does just enough to score so never wins by a wide margin. However, she comes into this race bidding for a hattrick after back to back wins in her last 2 starts and her trackwork has been tremendous of late. In form C.S. Jodha takes the ride and she looks a strong contender to make it 3 in a row and continue her winning spree.
ODESSA :- 5 year old got abroad from the Malesh Narredu yard, he too has plenty of ability and has done well to secure 4 wins from his 9 starts till date but does not appear to be completely straightforward and has run some shockers in between his victories. His last 2 runs have been below par and last time out he finished 5th behind Turning Point so he has work to do to reverse that form. He does tend to do well when back from a break and has been working superbly of late so a case can be made for him today and with P.S. Chouhan in the saddle, he could very well bounce back. Comes with risks attached.
LORD OF THE SEA :- Solid and strong galloping stayer from the Pesi Shroff yard he is sparingly raced for his age, and has won 3 of his 12 starts. He seems to be more effective over longer trips and this would be the bare minimum for him and as he has had practically no track work, this could be a lung opener for future events to come. However, Y.S. Srinath has been booked to ride and although he looks unlikely to trouble the principals, he must be respected and cannot be ignored.
AUBURN :- Another promising got abroad who appears to have plenty of scope for further improvement she has an almost 50% strike rate of 3 wins from 7 starts and is coming into this fresh off a win over a mile in Class II in Ooty. She caught the eye on just her 2nd start when scoring a stylish win over a mile on this course and was thought good enough to contest the Pune Derby where she led for a long way before retiring. She then went on to score over a mile in Mumbai before running 4th in the Indian Oaks. She looks to be on a decent mark at present, P. Trevor takes the ride and she receiving weight from most of her rivals, she looks a strong contender.
CONCLUSION :- Another competitive event and it may be worth siding with the progressive Auburn who looks to have the scope to be better than her current mark and may just be coming to hand. Turning Point also looks progressive and shapes as the danger while Selfie Star cannot be ignored either.
Race No.5 :- The August Handicap – Class IV, 3 Years Old Only – Distance :- 1400M
HOPE AND GLORY :- Promising 3 year old trained by Vishal Gaikwad, this half brother to Bangalore Derby winner Torrorosso has run 4 times till date and appears to have the strongest form in this field. Runner up to Octavius over 6 furlongs on debut, he went on to score a battling 7 furlong win over Augustus Caesar before running 4th in both the Breeders Produce Stakes and the Shapoorji Pallonji Colts Championship. He is accordingly at the top of the scale and is a long striding type who looks likely to relish a further step up in trip. His preparatory work has been good and with Y.S. Srinath booked to ride, he is probably the form choice in this field.
STEPPENWOLF :- Trained by young Shazaan Shah who appears to have some decent 3 year olds, this son of Dean’s Kitten has done well in his 3 starts till date although he looks held by Hope and Glory on their last run. Chasing home Dance The Dream on debut over 1200M, he then went on to claim a bloodless maiden success over Shivalik Queen again over 6 furlongs. He finished 5th behind Hope and Glory in the Colts Championship when stepped up to a mile and now drops back to 7 furlongs. He has been working well and P.S. Chouhan takes the ride but it looks hard for him to beat Hope and Glory and he will need to improve substantially to have a say. Place contender.
FRIEZE :- Potentially classy Excellent Art filly trained by Altaf Hussain, she is owned by the Poonawalla family and is unbeaten, having scored a smooth success as an odds on favourite on her debut in Mumbai. That win came over 1000M and she took her time to get going so it is likely that this longer trip will be much more suitable and see her in a better light. Her trackwork has been excellent of late suggesting that she has improved significantly and with maximum scope for improvement on just her 2nd start and with C.S. Jodha in the saddle, she looks the one with the best chance to win today and is a leading fancy.
QUAIL HOLLOW :-Has a similar profile to Frieze having raced just once before and caught the eye when finishing on strongly to be runner up to Rose Gold over an inadequate 1000M, she too looks open to plenty of improvement and should relish more galloping ground. Trained by BezanChenoy who still manages to pull out one or two above average performers each crop, she looks to be an exciting prospect and is likely to improve greatly. She has been working well, P. Trevor has been booked to ride and a big run is anticipated from her.
JETFIRE :- Thrice raced maiden from the M.K. Jadhav yard, he has been unplaced in his 3 starts till date, not making too much progress but filling the frame or thereabouts the last twice. He finished 4th to Spitfire over 1400M on his penultimate run before running 5th behind Excellent again over this trip and both these fields looked decent ones. His recent trackwork suggests that he has made some improvement over the summer and he could secure a minor berth with T.S. Jodha booked to ride.
CONCLUSION :- Frieze made a promising winning debut over a trip that looked on the sharp side for her and on the weights, is selected to maintain her unbeaten record. Hope and Glory sets the form standard although he is much more exposed and may eventually require further so Quail Hollow looks the alternative having also run promisingly on debut
Race No. 6 :- The Goodness Gracious Plate – Class V, 5 Years Old & Over – Distance :- 1000M (No Whips Allowed)
ADAM’S BEGINNING :- 5 year old mare trained by M.P.Jodha, she has managed to win just once in 20 starts till date which is not an inspiring record although she does have several placed efforts to her name in similar contests and looks to be on a handy mark at present. She finished runner up over 1200M on her last start in Mumbai and chased home Furiosa last week over course and distance although there is no obvious reason why she should reverse that form. Additional negatives are she has secured a wide berth in Stall 11 and will be ridden by rookie apprentice from the new batch Malam Singh. She is likely to run into a place again today but should find it hard to beat Furiosa.
FURIOSA :- Was heavily backed over this trip last time out in a similar contest but was overwhelmed by the younger Skysurfer in the closing stages, keeping on to finish up a good 2nd and should strip fitter for the run. She now drops back into her own age group, has bagged the plum rail draw and has experienced apprentice Parbat Singh who claims 5 kilos in the saddle. She appears to have ticks in all the right boxes and looks the one most likely to make amends and score.
SPARKLING THEA :- Fully exposed 5 year old mare trained by Narendra Lagad, she has a similar profile to several of these and has been successful just once in 22 starts till date. However, she has been running quite consistently over this trip in her last few starts and has been at least making the frame on almost every run. She could have been freshened up by the break, is working well and although her rider is relatively inexperienced, she has a decent draw in 4 and should go well.
AQUARIUS :- 5 year old maiden from the M.K. Jadhav yard, his losing run has now stretched to 19 and he is becoming frustrating to follow and does not seem to be progressing. The 5 furlong trip will be on the sharp side for him but he does come into this in some form, having finished a close 4th to Eternal Dancer over 1200M last week. R. Ajinkya is one of the better riders in this field and although unreliable, he looks capable of making the finish interesting and should be considered each way.
ARC OF PASSION :- Exposed 5 year old from the small stable of S.N.Joshi, she managed to taste maiden success back in Mumbai over this trip and has been quite consistent since the victory finishing runner up in her next 2 starts. She had a lung opener when finishing a close 5th behind Furiosa and Adam’s Beginning with a feeble claimer up and the switch to K. Nazil is a big positive. She seems to have maintained her form well and if building on that last run, she could prove to be a big danger to Furiosa.
CONCLUSION :-Although I usually try to avoid selections in these sort of races, Furiosa appears to have plenty going for her and is put forward as a selection. She finished runner up last time out with several of these behind her so has a fitness advantage, can go from end to end with the rail draw and one of the more experienced riders up. For those looking for more value, Arc of Passion was not beaten a long way last time out and can reverse the form with a better rider up
(Disclaimer : Views are entirely that of the correspondent only and RWITC takes no responsibility for the same)
