FROM THE HORSES MOUTH - RACE FORM ANALYSIS GUIDE FOR SUNDAY, 12TH MARCH 2017 - By Cyrus Naterwalla
Posted on - 11 Mar 2017
FROM THE HORSES MOUTH - RACE FORM ANALYSIS GUIDE FOR SUNDAY, 12TH MARCH 2017
- By Cyrus Naterwalla
Race No. 1 :- The W. Buckley Plate – Class V – 2400M
ROMAN GOLD :- The 4 year old gelding has raced 9 times till date over distances ranging from 1200-1600M and is yet to show any sort of form. He had 2 runs early in the season and is now returning from almost a 3 month lay off and stepping up appreciably in trip. Being a younger horse, it is hoped that some improvement will be unlocked over this distance and he has been working fairly well. If staying he looks to have a strong chance in what looks an extremely weak affair.
RITZ :- The 5 year old mare is also a maiden but she has a couple of placed efforts to her name, her best being a half length 2nd over 1800M. On her last run about 3 weeks ago, she ran on to finish 4th to DanseDebonaire in a similar contest and it looks likely that she will stay the extra 400M. She tends to be moody and get left at the gates but if she takes a level jump she should be right there in the firing line.
STAR SCHOLAR :- The well bred 4 year old gelding has raced 13 times till date over varying trips and is still a maiden although he has been working well in the morning gallops for some time now. He finished well behind Ritz last time out over 2000M and has improvement to do on that score if he is to reverse the places. However, the booking of A. Sandesh suggests connections fancy their chances and he could make this a pillar to post affair. The dam Scholastic Giant is by Giants Causeway who is a stamina influence and hence the pedigree raises hopes that he will stay the trip.
RED FORT :- The 6 year old happens to be the only previous winner in the field having scored over 2000M last season in a similar contest. He has been woefully out of form since then and finished tailed off when last seen in January. However, he has come back down to his last winning mark and seems the only one who is sure to stay the trip so merits consideration in this weak field.
CONCLUSION :-There are question marks surrounding each and every one of the runners and hence it is impossible to make a recommendation other than that this race is best watched from the stands
Race No. 2 :- The Mulraj Goculdas Trophy – Class I – 1200M
BRYNHILL :- Is now 8 years of age and mainly contests Terms Races but did manage to win the last time he was dropped into a handicap event of a similar mark in Pune in August. He has had 2 runs already this season so should be fit enough and Santosh G who rode him to his last victory is in the saddle again. He looks to have a strong chance in spite of being top weight.
PARAMOUR :- The 5 year old mare has shown remarkable consistency in her short career having never been out of the first 3 in 9 starts till date, winning on 3 occasions. She attempted 7 furlongs for the first time in her last start, running on to finish 2nd to the speedy Celtic Prince but she will be more at home over this 6 furlongs. She receives 8 kilos from Brynhill and with Trevor up, looks a very strong contender.
SUPREME REGIME :- The 7 year old gelding has done most of his racing down south where he was a winner of 2 of his 20 starts, both over 7 furlongs. He came to Western India during the Pune season and had 2 runs without making much impression. He has most likely been well prepared for his late seasonal debut and looks a dark horse who can surprise if fit and ready to go with P.S. Chouhan up.
BRAHMACHARI :- The 5 year old gelding reached his peak last February but finished down the field in last years Sprinters Cup and has been performing poorly since then. He needs to show that he still has zest for racing and the only positive in his favour is that Sandesh has been booked for the ride. He would be given a chance on his best form but comes with a lot of questions to answer.
DEEP DIVER :- The 7 year old is usually quite consistent over sprint trips but one has to look back to December 2015 for his last career victory. He is expected to run well again and could be in the shake up but looks more of a place contender and hard to see him winning this although not impossible.
CONCLUSION :- Brynhilllooks likely of repeating his performance the last time he contested a handicap, running off the same weight and with the same rider up. The consistent Paramour could give him the most to do with Southern raider Supreme Regime the dark horse
Race No. 3 :- The Behram A. Engineer Trophy – Class III – 1600M
GLORIOUS EYES :- The 4 year old filly seems to be an enigmatic customer but lived up to her early season promise when scoring with authority last time out over 7 furlongs in the lower class, easily beating Hunting Pleasure and Zoom Zoom with the same rider up and clocking a fast time of 1.23.93. She has a 5 ½ kilo penalty to contend with and is upped in grade but if she has come right then she will take some stopping. She is strongly fancied to repeat.
PUGNACIOUS :- Had an excellent Pune season and carried that form into his opening race of the season where he beat Mekong Delta and Frivolous over this trip. He took his time to get to Khayyam last time out though and was overwhelmed by Traherne close home, ending up a close 3rd. His subsequent work suggests that he has been sharpened up by that run and with Akshay Gaikwad taking a valuable 3 ½ kilos off, he looks a big danger.
MAKINO :- The 4 year old has done well all his 3 starts this season and was a decisive winner over Angel Girl and Celestial Light over 7 furlongs in the lower class last time out. He seems to have maintained his form and fitness and should not be bothered by the extra furlong. Neeraj retains the ride and under a statutory 6 kilo penalty, he stands a good chance to repeat and must come into calculations.
VICE ADMIRAL :- The 5 year old is very lightly raced till date so it is surprising that this is his 3rd start of the current campaign and he has only raced a total of 8 times till date. He made a successful comeback on his reappearance, winning cosily over this trip and did not appear too interested last time out when running on leisurely to be 4th behind Streetjammer. He has the scope to improve further and if the last run is ignored, then he has an excellent chance.
FLYING DRAGON:- The 5 year old looks more exposed than some of these and has been campaigning over much longer trips without much success. He did finish a close 2nd to Vulcan over 2000M a couple of starts ago but may find things happening too quickly over this shorter trip. He cannot be ignored with P.S. Chouhan booked but looks more of a place prospect.
VOLANTIS :- Seemed to have come into her own this season, winning twice and getting up late to collar Sensex over course and distance on her penultimate start. She was perhaps wrongly ridden last time out when kept well up with the pace and could not quicken thereafter, ending up a tame 5th just behind Vice Admiral. With Trevor up and if waiting tactics are employed again, then she looks very interesting and is quite capable of bouncing back.
CONCLUSION :-A nice competitive Class III affair with several holding good chances. Glorious Eyes looks to be on the upgrade and is fancied to win again with the top weighted Pugnacious a big danger if back to his early season form. Makino and Vice Admiral both look dangers as well with Volantis capable of toppling them all if ridden in restraint
Race No. 4 :- The Indian Navy Trophy – Div. II – Class IV – 4 years old only – 1000M
PHILADELPHIA :- The speedily bred 4 year old filly looks the obvious starting point here. She has raced 3 times till date and looked ready to win last season but came a cropper when odds on, finding Alpine Express too speedy. She made a belated reappearance about 3 weeks ago but was clearly in need of the run and made casual late progress to finish 4th just ahead of Petronius. She seems to have improved significantly judging from her subsequent track work and now looks set to shed her maiden tag with Sandesh up and a good draw to boot.
PETRONIUS :- Began racing this season and has also raced 3 times till date over varying trips, last time finishing ½ a length behind Philadelphia who was not fully fit. He lacks the scope of Philadelphia to improve but looks the main challenger nonetheless and should be right there.
SPORTO :- Has run 7 times till date and finally gained his maiden success on his penultimate run, beating Ice Angel and Dubrovnik in a close finish. He then stepped up to 7 furlongs but ran disappointingly and now drops down to the minimum trip. He is working well and could be a danger with good apprentice S.A. Amit booked but he needs to improve on the bare form.
WARLOCK :- Was a winner from pillar to post on the opening day over 6 furlongs but since then has been running quite poorly. This race looks weaker than those which he has been contesting and has a 5 kilo apprentice up so could run into a place.
GOLDEN HORDE :- The 4 year old filly looks an interesting runner from BezanChenoy's stable also having her 4th career start. She ran a promising race on her 2nd run in Pune where she finished just outside the frame. She was given a lung opener this season finishing well behind Philadelphia and Petronius but should improve and even though R. Shelar is not a positive jockey booking she looks an interesting outsider.
CONCLUSION :-Philadelphia seems to have been handed a straightforward opportunity to get off the mark and should do so at the expense of Petronius.
Race No. 5 – The Design One Stakes – Maidens – 3 Years Old Only – 1400M
CERRADO :-Appears to have the best form of this lot, having finished 2nd on 2 previous occasions. He began by chasing home Summer Rays over 6 furlongs before again finishing 2nd to Texas Gold but ahead of subsequent winners Big Sur and Gloriosus. He found the opposition too hot in the Gool S. Poonawalla where he finished 8th but this is much easier and he looks likely to appreciate the extra furlong. He is working well since his last run, NeerajRawal takes over again from Trevor and he looks a strong fancy to score
XOXO :-Is a debutant from the S.S. Shah yard who looks a nice sort on paper and appears to be the main danger. He has been well prepared on track and his preparatory work outs have looked promising. P. Trevor has been booked for the ride and he looks set to make a bold statement on debut in what appears just a modest field. There are mixed signals from the pedigree with the full sister Milwalkee having done nothing till date but half brother Spirit of Mercy went to Class I winning 6 races in Western India
BROOKLYN :-Appears to be the pick of Narendra Lagad's 3 runners and is working the best of the trio. He made his debut over 5 furlongs where he was all at sea and finished down the field. He is sure to benefit from the experience and should appreciate more galloping ground. He seems to have stripped fitter and merits each way consideration here
ALOHA :-Is another debutant who catches the eye and has been working well. She was withdrawn at the start on her intended debut a couple of weeks ago but has been showing out nicely in the morning trials and S.K. Sunderji has his string of juveniles in good condition. C.S. Jodha has been riding really well of late and hence this first timer merits serious consideration. A full sister to Domination who won the opening race of the season before going off to Delhi, she is worthy of consideration
SOLO MISSION :-Comes from the powerful M.A.M. Ramaswamy yard and must be respected on that score alone. He has raced twice over 5 and 6 furlongs, finishing mid division on both occasions and now steps up to this trip. He has been working fairly well and if taking to the longer trip which his pedigree suggests he will, he can be involved.
EMOTIONLESS :- Has raced thrice till date so is probably the most experienced in this field and tackled a mile last time out after 2 runs over 6 furlongs. She has done nothing of note in 3 starts till date but has an attractive pedigree and could just be coming to hand. Ooh Aah Camera also produced Barrachus who won 4 of his 13 starts in Bangalore while Tammy O too was a winner of 3 of her 9 races albeit over 1000M.
CONCLUSION :-Cerradolooks the stand out on form and should win this comfortably. In case he falters, then either of the newcomers, Aloha or XOXO can make a winning debut
Race No. 6 :- The Jayaramdas Patel Gold Trophy – Class IV – 2000M
SUSSEX PRIDE :-Looks an interesting and unexposed contender from the Subhag Singh stable who has still to give off his best. He landed a shrewd gamble in the lower class on Derby Day, getting on top late to score in a mile and then next time out, looked to have been given a "test" run in the higher grade, not looking too serious and running on late to be 5th just ¾ length behind the winner. Trevor is back in the saddle now, he is working well and can strike again over this longer trip. He looks a strong fancy
BRAZOS :-Looks another progressive 4 year old who just seems to be finding his feet this season. 2nd over an inadequate 6 furlongs on reappearance he then finished on late to be 4th when stepped up to a mile and duly built on that last time out when winning with authority. A 4 ½ kilo penalty may not be enough to stop him and his come from behind style suggests he will relish more galloping ground. He seems to be going the right way and is strongly fancied to repeat
FLASHING HONOUR:- Has been running well of late, mainly over a mile but he does have the stamina to get this far. He finished about ½ a length in front of Sussex Pride last time out, making good late headway and just failing to get up. They reoppose on similar terms and it should be close between the pair again. Y.S. Srinath is a very positive booking and he is expected to go very close
THOR OF ASGARD :-Has been slowly working his way into form and has been showing some improvement on each of his runs thus far. He was favourite last time out over 2000M in the lower class but was no match for Raees who then went on to complete a hatrick of wins, but he finished well clear of the rest. He has been upped in grade without winning but should improve again and can add some pep to the finish with NeerajRawal in the saddle
EIGER'S TIGER :-Is more exposed than most of these and has been running quite consistently without winning over similar trips. He has been eased in grade now which is a positive and the booking of A. Sandesh, who is not a regular for the yard, catches the eye. He looks more of a place prospect but is dangerous to ignore
DAYDREAMER :-This 4 year old from ImtiazSait's yard has raced 6 times till date and was an impressive winner over a mile in Class V. However, in her next 2 starts she had finished down the field, once apiece in Mumbai and Pune. She needs to bounce back from those 2 poor runs but should be fitter after the lung opener and has Suraj back on board so she is expected to do better and could be a lively outsider
CONCLUSION :-This looks highly competitive with Sussex Pride just a tentative selection in the hopes that we have not seen the best of him as yet. Brazosseems to be progressive as well and is a threat as is the enigmatic but in form Flashing Honour. Daydreamer is also unexposed and could be the joker in the pack
Race No. 7 :- The C.N. Wadia Gold Cup (Grade 2) – Terms, Penalties – 4 Years Old & Over – 2400M
CAMERON :-The 5 year old mare looks set to give the colours of Dr. Vijay Mallya back to back wins in this race after the success of Azzurro last year. The mare is a winner of 9 of her 16 starts and comes into this on the back of a good 2nd to Jersey Wonder over the same trip in Bangalore. She is a St. Leger winner so stamina is clearly not an issue and with Trevor to guide her again, she looks set to make it 2 in a row for the winning connections
B FIFTY TWO :-Was given a canny front running ride by Trevor to outwit Alaindair and steal the Eclipse Stakes of India last time out and comes into this in top form. However, in the past he has looked a little suspect over 2400M and if the race is run at a true pace, then he may just get outstayed close home. With no confirmed front runner in the field, he may be able to control the pace again and if allowed his way up front, he may be able to strike again
VERONESE :-Represents the Classic generation and has done well in her limited career so far. She rattled off 3 wins in a row culminating in a splendid victory in the Hyderabad Oaks before finishing a gallant runner up to Germanicus in the Hyderabad Derby. Her official rating of 87 suggests that she has a lot to find with the principals but she stays well and could be a factor.
COMMODORE :-Could be the dark horse in this contest and can cause an upset. The Pesi Shroff trained 5 year old has won 4 of his 7 starts although he found himself up against it when tackling this sort of company in the Idar Gold Trophy in Pune. He was soundly beaten by Severus on his seasonal debut but then bounced back with a Classy performance to beat stable companion Arlene easily in a good time. He deserves another crack at a race like this and although he has a lot to find on the Terms he cannot be written off.
ALAINDAIR :-The former Indian Derby winner is now 7 years of age and has had a busy season already. He seems to be on the decline sadly, losing the Eclipse to B Fifty Two and then running no race in the Invitation Cup in Bangalore. He is the highest rated in this field but seems to be having too much racing and looks up against it here
CONCLUSION :-Cameron and B Fifty Two look likely to fight out the finish here with the 4 year old Veronese a danger although way out on the Terms
Race No. 8 :- The Indian Navy Trophy – Div. I – Class IV – 4 Years Old Only – 1000M
MOTHERLAND :-Appears to have found a good opportunity to earn another bracket for herself taking on a relatively weak field here. She overcame a couple of indifferent efforts in the higher class to run a close 3rd on the return to this grade and if the race doesn't come too soon, then she will take all the beating. Sandesh retains the ride and she is strongly fancied to score
GRAN PARADISO :-Would appear to be the most obvious danger, having run her best races over this trip in her 8 race career. Her solitary win came over 1000M in Pune and she finished a good 2nd to Alpine Express on her penultimate start before an unsuccessful attempt at 7 furlongs. Back down to this trip, she looks a big danger but the booking of 5 kilo claimer K. Nazil does not inspire confidence.
EL TYCOON :-Comes from the small yard of Vijay Kasbekar but hinted that his turn was not far away when chasing home Almost Magical over this trip last time out. He has been working very well since the run and Akash Agarwal returns after a stint in the wilderness to take the ride. He looks in fine trim at present and must come into consideration
DIVINE MAGIC :-Looks a very interesting dark horse from ImtiazSait's yard and could possibly be the medium of a smart gamble. He has raced just 4 times till date, and ran promisingly over 6 furlongs on his 2nd start when finishing on late to be 4th under this rider. He went on to run a close 2nd over 1400M next time out and had just one run over a mile in December. He returns after a 3 month absence over a trip which should be plenty sharp but is lightly raced and worth keeping an eye on
FABIO :-This 4 year old gelding from Sanjay Kolse's yard won his maiden race over this trip on debut but since then has been campaigned over longer distances without success. It is interesting that his trainer opts to put him back over this trip today and he too is returning from a short break which is hoped to have freshen him up. He is not totally reliable but could run well
CONCLUSION :-Motherland should be able to win this with Sandesh up with the main dangers looking Gran Paradiso who has a feeble rider and El Tycoon. Divine Magic is worth keeping an eye on
(Disclaimer : Views are entirely that of the correspondent only and RWITC takes no responsibility for the same)
