FROM THE HORSES MOUTH - RACE FORM ANALYSIS GUIDE FOR SUNDAY, 26TH FEBRUARY 2017 - By Cyrus Naterwalla
Posted on - 25 Feb 2017
FROM THE HORSES MOUTH - RACE FORM ANALYSIS GUIDE FOR SUNDAY, 26TH FEBRUARY 2017 - By Cyrus Naterwalla
Race No. 1 :- The Hello! Classic Class I 1400M
CELTIC PRINCE :-Is a winner of 4 of his 17 starts, 3 of them coming over this trip but he seems quite versatile from distances ranging from 1000-1400M. He has been in excellent form this season, winning twice in the lower classes and last time out finishing an excellent close 2nd over what looked an inadequate 5 furlongs. Current form is a vital criteria among these older horses so even though he is upped in grade, he has the services of NeerajRawal in the saddle today and looks a strong contender
RULE DOWNUNDER :-The 6 year old got abroad from S.K. Sunderji's yard is a winner of 5 races from 28 starts although he has not always been totally consistent and is prone to run erratically from time to time. He has been competing in much tougher contests so this is like a drop in grade for him and he has looked to be finding some form on his last 2 starts. He finished a good 2nd to Renee on his penultimate start over this trip and has the measure of The Champ on that performance. The Champ did reverse the placings last time out but that was over a sharp 6 furlongs. C.S. Jodha retains the ride and he has to be respected
THE CHAMP :-Was extremely progressive early in his career completing an impressive string of 5 races in a row and has yet to be out of the first 3 in his brief 9 race career. He has looked in the handicapper's grip this season but his last effort where he finished 2nd to stable companion Denny Crane was encouraging. He has a bit to find with Rule Downunder at the weights but has the most scope to improve out of these and cannot be ignored
PARAMOUR :-Is also lightly raced having won 3 of his 8 starts and he too is yet to finish out of the first three in his 8 race career. He has raced almost exclusively over 6 furlongs till date and steps up to this trip for the first time as well as being upped in grade. A straight line through Denny Crane would suggest that he is well clear of The Champ and Rule Downunder so off his current handicap mark, he looks to have an excellent chance if staying the extra furlong well.
CONCLUSION :-A small field but an extremely competitive affair with each of the 4 runners having a claim to win this. Celtic Prince is in good current form and just gets the vote from the well handicapped Paramour
Race No. 2 :- The Dr.Goolam E. Vahanvati Gold Trophy Terms Maidens 3 Years Old Only 1200M
BENEFACTOR :- This once raced Arazan colt from the Malesh Narredu yard looks the obvious starting point here, having finished an excellent 2nd on debut in the B.K. Rattonsey Multi Million on Derby Day. He was a hot favourite that day and looked like winning when he took over the running midway up the straight but found Awesome Hooves too strong in the finish. He did finish 5 lengths clear of the rest and is sure to improve significantly. He is working well since the run and looks a leading fancy to go one better now. His dam Lovely Kiss was the winner of the Bangalore Summer Fillies Trial Stakes so the pedigree is solid and he is the one to beat.
FOREST FAIRY :-This debutant from the Bezan Chenoy yard looks the most interesting debutant and the one most likely to trouble Benefactor. She has been working extremely well in the build up to this race and should be fit and raring to go. Her pedigree is impeccable with her dam Forest Fantasy a Multi Classic winner and having produced several top class performers like Spectacular Quest, Ruben Star and Flashing Chieftain. She will be ridden by P.S. Chouhan and is expected to run a very big race.
GAZINO :-Is an owner mate of the likely favourite Benefactor and has run twice, performing fairly well on both occasions. He made his debut over 6 furlongs on January 5th and finished 3rd to Rotterdam. He then contested the Mid Day Trophy over 7 furlongs a couple of weeks ago, finishing 4th to Windsor Forest and weakening in the final furlong. The drop back to this trip seems logical but he needs to improve radically to be a factor. His half sister Secret Flame was better over further but he can make the frame.
MAN OF WORD :-made his debut way back in December and gave just a modest performance when 4th to Summer Rays over 6 furlongs. He has been brought along steadily since then and his prep work too has been average. He is sure to improve from his debut but hasn't shown anything to suggest that he can trouble the principals. He had just one sibling Flashy Ways who raced twice, winning on debut.
KEEP COMING ON :-Is another interesting debutant from the KarthikGanapathy yard. She has been working very well in the morning gallops and is another who seems primed to run a good race on debut. Dean's Kitten is a fairly new stallion in India while the dam Mamborina has produced 3 previous foals in India. Simply Dashing was a crack miler in Delhi winning 8 times in 51 starts while Manyara raced just 4 times in Western India and failed to even place. The most recent foal Mullrina also raced in Delhi and has placed 4 times in 7 starts.
CONCLUSION :-Benefactor looks the form pick here and the likely favourite but is expected to encounter stiff resistance from Forest Fairy
Race No. 3 :- The Intervalve Poonawalla Ltd. Trophy Class IV 2400M
GERANIUM :-Comes from the mighty Pesi Shroff stable and is clearly open to improvement after just 3 career starts. She was unplaced on her debut in Pune but made a winning start to the Mumbai season by scoring with authority over a mile in Class IV, winning quite comfortably from end to end. She impressed her Trainer enough to travel to Bangalore to have a crack at the Oaks but she could only finish a well held 4th. Back against this much easier opposition she looks set to resume her progress and assuming she stays well, she has an excellent chance. Her sire Mastercraftsman was a multiple Group I winner while the dam Kirtle won once and placed twice over distances upto a mile and a quarter.
OTHELLO :-Has been brought along steadily, not seemingly as forward as many of his illustrious siblings. He has raced 4 times till date, last time out finishing 4th over a mile as a favourite, about 5 lengths behind the winner Flashing Honour. Most of the family seem to come into their own over staying trips and hence the step up to this trip is interesting. He needs to show something on the track before he can be recommended but cannot be ignored either. He comes from the family of Cabriolet, Berlusconi and Reynolds and must be respected.
RESPECT :-Has threatened to strike on a number of occasions but is still a maiden after 9 starts over varying trips. His last 2 runs have come over this distance and he impressed on his penultimate run when finishing a close 3rd to Winter Renaissance and Rousseau. However, when favourite on Derby Day he travelled strongly into the straight but faded away weakly when challenged and dropped away like a non stayer. Trevor now takes over in the saddle and he has to be considered but a leap of faith is needed to back him. Possibly a change in name will bring about a change of luck.
KITTY HAWK :- Is another promising got abroad from the stables of young Adhiraj Singh Jodha who was raced 4 times till date, finishing 2nd on 2 occasions. She finished 2nd over 5 furlongs on debut but then ran poorly over 6 and 7 furlongs the next twice. Stepped up to a mile and a quarter last time out, she made late headway to finish 2nd to the runaway winner Sabiq suggesting this more galloping trip will suit. She has the scope to improve and looks interesting.
JAGER BOMB :-A more exposed 6 year old taking on lightly raced younger horses but he has proven form over this trip finishing a close 2nd over it twice in Pune. He had 2 runs early in Mumbai to blow away the cobwebs and has been steadily brought along for this race. He has top weight to defy which is a big ask but stays well and can be involved
CONCLUSION :- In a race where question marks surround a lot of the runners, a tentative chance is taken on Geranium with the hope that she will stay the trip. Respect looks dangerous and can strike at any time but is unreliable. Both Othello and Kitty Hawk have potential over this trip but have doubts surrounding them.
Race No. 4 The Poonawalla Breeders' Multi Million Grade 1 Terms Indian Horses 3 Years Old Only 1400M
RUFFINA :-Is the main local hope and it will be a fairy tale win if she can win the races in the colours of Dr. Cyrus Poonawalla one of the chief sponsors of the event. She is unbeaten in 2 starts and was hugely impressive last time out in the Gool S. Poonawalla where she decimated the opposition to win as she pleased, almost shattering the 6 furlong course record in this process. She has been well prepared since her last run and should be raring to go with David Allan once more in the saddle. She clearly looks the one to beat and is expected to run a big race.
TUTANKHAMUN :-Is one of 3 runners sporting the claret and gold silks of owner /breeder Shapoor Mistry and comes from Bangalore with a formidable reputation. He was a facile winner of his maiden in Bangalore and showed that was no fluke when scoring an authoritative success in The Breeders' Produce Stakes over 7 furlongs. He seems to have improved again judging from his recent track work and looks one of the chief threats to Ruffina.
PERFECT STAR :-Has run twice till date with one victory to his name over a mile last time out. He finished 2nd on debut to Glyndebourne over 1400M and then showed he had improved when scoring an impressive wide margin win over a mile next time out. He has been blazing the track in the morning gallops and looks absolutely raring to go. He must be one of the principal contenders with P.S. Chouhan retaining the ride.
AWESOME HOOVES :-Comes from the stables of young Shazaan Shah who has already made people sit up and take notice of his ability in his limited career. Awesome Hooves was extremely impressive on debut over 6 furlongs in the B.K. Rattonsey Multi Million where he came with a powerful run to win running away. He will no doubt improve appreciably for that run and the form will be tested when Benefactor runs earlier in the day. He seems to have maintained his form and fitness and Y.S. Srinath flies down to take the ride.
PHOENIX FALCON :-Is another unbeaten runner who comes from Bangalore with a formidable reputation having won 2 early season races over sprints in most impressive fashion. He was brought to Mumbai early to acclimatize and given a Mock Race to get him used to the conditions. He has been judiciously prepared with this event in view and it is interesting that Colm O' Donoghue the first jockey for Shapoor Mistry has been declared on him.
LINCOLN :-Is the representative of the Pesi Shroff yard, although having run both his races till date over 1000M. He finished runner up on debut to Miss Moneypenny before scoring a facile maiden win against weak opposition in The Sohna Stud Million on Derby weekend. He has been working over 7 furlongs since then, can improve again but needs to show significant improvement on the bare form if he is to be a factor.
TIMELESS :-Came with a rattling run to peg back Windsor Forest over 6 furlongs on debut and then chased home Tutankhamun in the Breeders Produce Stakes. There is no obvious reason why she should reverse that form but she has been working well and could be involved in the minor placings.
ANGELS TOUCH :-An attractive filly with a fine pedigree she ran a mighty race on debut when finishing a close 3rd to Windsor Forest and Rochester and did not look fully wound up that day. She is expected to improve significantly for that run and could be an interesting outsider who could run well at a price.
CONCLUSION :-This race always proves to be competitive and this year is no exception. Without selecting one particular runner the winner is expected to emerge from Ruffina, Tutankhamun, Phoenix Falcon and Awesome Hooves.
Race No. 5 The Rusi Patel Trophy Class IV 1200M
GREY FLANNEL :-Always highly regarded, she seems to be really coming into her own this season. She scored an impressive win over 6 furlongs on her penultimate start and then ran a cracker in a large field to finish 2nd to Zinfandelle by a whisker. She is better off on the terms with her rival today and the step up back to 6 furlongs will be in her favour. Sandesh takes the ride and she looks a leading fancy to continue her progression.
ZINFANDELLE :-Had been disappointing in 3 prior runs till date over longer trips but the drop down to the minimum and come from behind tactics brought about a transformation as she motored home to stick her neck out and deny Grey Flannel in a blanket finish. She too may have just started to come right and is dangerous to ignore although Grey Flannel is better off on the scale today.
AIRLIFT :-Has raced 4 times until date and not quite gone on from his impressive maiden win over this trip. He ran a modest 3rd on his opening effort in Pune and then finished a close 5th in a hot race over 7 furlongs. He had a lung opener here to blow away the cobwebs and should improve for the run. He is fancied each way and should be a factor with in form C.S. Jodha up.
ADELINE :- She has run 5 times till date and was in good form in Pune with a win and a good 2nd and seemed to be returning back to form last time out when finishing 4th to Irish Bailey. She needs to make further progress to trouble the principals but Trevor takes over in the saddle and she is given a good each way chance
TCHIBOUELA :-Has been an enigmatic customer in 6 runs till date. He has been fancied right from his debut run and has been working extremely well right from the outset but failed to make an impression on the track. He showed that he had ability on his penultimate start when finally scoring in the lower class but then ran poorly last time out. He could be a wild card here and could threaten if he is in a galloping mood.
VOULEZ VOUS :-Is a well bred Phoenix Tower filly who is still a maiden after 10 starts having placed on a few occasions but again running in and out races. She has gone close on a couple of occasions and off the low weight, she could be a lively outsider
CONCLUSION :-Grey Flannel looks set to resume her progress and can return to the winner's circle. Zinfandelle would be a definite danger in spite of her penalty while an improved Airlift could make them both work harder
Race No. 6 :- The Sir Victor Sassoon Gold Trophy Class III 1400M
MISS SAIGON :-Rapidly progressive grey who was an impressive winner of each of her 3 starts and was unfortunate to lose her unbeaten record when getting hemmed up on the inside in a large field and getting no galloping room all the way up the straight, still ending a close 3rd. She is expected to shrug off that performance and return to winning ways in spite of conceding weight all around.
CARBONARA :-Was considered one of the better 3 year olds in his juvenile season but then seemed to lose his way. Gelding early in the season, he returned with an impressive performance to lunge late and beat Sawgrass and Miss Saigon who did not get a clear run. He is sure to improve again and will try hard to repeat although now looks hard to beat Miss Saigon
CHIZZLER :- Was the medium of a smart gamble on debut and looked way too classy for his rivals when scoring with authority over 7 furlongs last time out and must improve for that run. He is taking on Class III opposition very early in his career but is an unknown quantity and has to be respected off the low weight with Sandesh in the saddle
DANCING LORD :-Slowly worked hisway back into form after a setback midway through his career and was rewarded with a battling win over this trip last time out. He is closely matched with Carbonara on a line through Sawgrass and is very dangerous to leave out of calculations
HEDWIG :-The grey mare was in good form early in the season, winning decisively over 6 furlongs in the lower class and then just being caught in the last stride by Exodus over this trip next time out. The 2 month absence is a bit of a concern but if she has been freshened up by the break then she could come back in form and add some interest to the finish
CONCLUSION :-Miss Saigon is expected to resume her upward curve after being most unlucky to lose her unbeaten record last time out. Chizzleris an unknown quantity who could be anything and must be respected while both Dancing Lord and Carbonara cannot be ignored
Race No. 7 :- The Serum Institute of India Trophy Class III 1000M
ALLORA :- Has 3 wins to her name from 7 starts till date and comes into this bidding for a hatrick after 2 smart wins over 1200M. It pays to follow fillies in form and Allora looks in the pink of condition at present so she is strongly fancied to complete her hatrick with Trevor fancying her over Serenita.
SERENITA :-Is all about speed and has done very well in her limited career so far, last time a touch unlucky to not reel in gritty Abbey over this trip. Rider's 2 ½ kilo claim will be useful and she must be a big danger to all in spite of the top weight
ABBEY :- For a long time proved to be a perennial bridesmaid when she finished 4th on 4 consecutive runs in Pune, except for one time, going down by less than a length and same thing on seasonal reappearance when she finished a close 3rd beaten only ½ a length. She was rewarded for her consistency when scoring with authority the last twice and is now bidding for a hatrick. She seems to have gotten confidence now and in spite of being out handicapped at present, she cannot be ignored.
UNDISPUTED :-Has won 3 times from 18 starts till date and all 3 of those victories have come over this trip. He finished a very close 4th behind Abbey and Serenita last time out and further progression must throw him into the mix. He seems to have maintained his form and merits each way consideration.
GREEK GODDESS :-Looked an exciting prospect when she won her first 2 starts in stylish fashion but she seems to have come unstuck since then and needs to bounce back from her last few flat performances. Her last few workouts have been encouraging and if she returns to her best then she could be a danger to all off the low weight.
QUIXOTIC :-Has a similar profile to Greek Goddess running well on his first 2 starts before losing his way. Has been given a break to freshen him up and with Sandesh now booked to ride, he ccould also be a factor if in a galloping mood.
CONCLUSION :-Allora gets the tentative nod in a race in which almost all of the runners can make a case for being selected. Serenita and the consistent Abbey look the main dangers
(Disclaimer : Views are entirely that of the correspondent only and RWITC takes no responsibility for the same)