UNRAVELLING THE CLASSIC CONUNDRUM - PREVIEW OF THE KINGFISHER ULTRA INDIAN DERBY - GRADE 1 - By Cyrus Naterwalla
Posted on - 04 Feb 2017
UNRAVELLING THE CLASSIC CONUNDRUM – PREVIEW OF THE KINGFISHER ULTRA INDIAN DERBY – GRADE 1
-By Cyrus Naterwalla
The 75th running of the Blue Riband promises to be a tremendous affair with the race bearing a competitive look unlike some previous renewals where there was a clear favourite. 5 geldings, 3 colts, a rig and 5 fillies comprise the 14 strong field with the fairer sex appearing to have a clear edge in this year’s renewal. In The Spotlight was the last filly to win the Indian Derby back in 2013 and she was the 3rd filly in a row to do so following Moonlight Romance and Jacqueline. The last 4 years have been won by the males with Desert God scoring a thrilling win over Myrtlewood last year. This year one colt and three fillies appear to make the short list and the chances of the principal contenders are enumerated below.
SERJEANT AT ARMS (Ikhtyar x Rahy’s Serenade) 8 starts 7 wins
Were it not for niggling doubts about his stamina, then SerjeantAt Arms would have been sure to start as a warm favourite. Starting almost this time last year, he strung together an impressive string of victories which included the Bangalore Summer Colts Trial Stakes and Derby and The Mysore 2000 Guineas. His only defeat came to Ice Glacier in the Mysore Derby after which he travelled to Mumbai to effortlessly win the Indian 2000 Guineas and the Ruia. While in the Guineas, Sandesh changed tactics and rushed him to the front, his win in the Ruia was absolutely effortless and he is sure to get a strong pace off which to settle tomorrow. He tends to be a little headstrong at the gates and the large crowd may unsettle him temperamentally but otherwise he looks a Class act. However, there are niggling stamina doubts that he may not stay the gruelling mile and a half trip as before the Ruia, he was stretched in both his runs over 2000M. Most of the progeny of Rahy’s Serenade have been classy performers but their best performances have come at a mile and a quarter although Frida Kahlo did run 2nd in the Oaks and the Derby. Sandesh will probably have to ride a waiting race and utilize his terrific finishing speed at the right time. If he stays the trip well then he will be hard to beat
POSITIVES :-High class performer, Jockey has maximum winners and best win percentage this season, working extremely well, brilliant turn of foot
NEGATIVES :-Not a confirmed stayer, trainer and Jockey have yet to win an Indian Derby, is temperamental and may get upset with the large crowd
HALL OF FAMER (Win Legend x Elusive Trust) 7 starts 4 wins
Hall of Famer heralds the return of Dashmesh Stud farm, who produced 3 Indian Derby winners – Chaitanya Chakram, Astronomic and Elusive Pimpernel within a short span of time but have their first realistic Derby contender since. After a quiet start to her career, Hall of Famer picked up 2 mile races – a maiden and a handicap before taking the step up in Grade and comfortably winning the Golconda 1000 Guineas. She then ran a cracker in the Indian 1000 Guineas, just losing out to Mrs. Patmore in a driving finish. She then travelled to Kolkotta where she produced an astounding performance in the Kolkotta Derby, winning by 8 lengths from Silver Beauty and Accolade in a phenomenal time of 2.28.60 seconds. She was brought straight to Mumbai to acclimatize since her Derby win and has been well prepared. Taking Silver Beauty as a yardstick, she seems to comfortably have the measure of the other fillies and looks the main and very real danger to SerjeantAt Arms. Her half brotherAmandus, was a winner of 5 races in Kolkotta and she is fancied by many to emerge on top. Both S. Padmanabhan and David Allan are Derby veterans having each won 2 derbies in the not too recent past and are attempting back to back Derby success after Desert God.
POSITIVES :-Confirmed Stayer, Has the best timing of all the Regional Derbies so far, Trainer and Jockey both have Derby winning experience.
NEGATIVES :-Other than her Derby victory her form looks modest, has been travelling a lot all over the country.
TEMERITY (Intense Focus x Narmina) 7 starts 5 wins.
Clearly one of the better fillies of her generation and she may just be peaking at the right time which is a huge positive. After having an educative run on debut, she gave signs of being above average when winning her maiden by 8 lengths last March. She went on to win the F.D. Wadia Trophy conceding 3 kilos to the Poonawalla Million runner up In My Dream before 2 effortless and classy handicap wins. She was sent off favourite for the 1000 Guineas but played up in the gates and ran no sort of race, being eased right down in the straight and finishing dead last. She showed her class by bouncing back to take the Indian Oaks in fine style, appearing to outstay Mrs. Patmore (who may have been wrongly ridden) in the final furlong. The pace was not that strong in the Oaks but Temerity may relish a stronger gallop and really appears to be coming into her own. Her pedigree too is steeped in stamina and she should have no trouble getting the mile and a half. She appeared to have a little in hand when winning the Oaks but Silver Beauty was just 3 lengths adrift which gives her work to do to reel in Hall of Famer. Her rider NeerajRawal has been in top form this season and booted home a quadruple on Saturday to put him in great spirits for what could be his first Derby winner. Pesi Shroff for all his success, has won only one Indian Derby as a trainer through the Queen Jacqueline. Could Temerity give him a 2nd Derby success ?
POSITIVES :-Stays the trip well, appears to be peaking at the right time, Jockey in Top form at present. Trainer is a Master of Classics.
NEGATIVES :-Racing just 2 weeks after the Oaks, out handicapped with Hall of Famer vis-à-vis Silver Beauty.
MRS. PATMORE (Holy Roman Emperor x Eliza Gilbert) 4 starts 2 wins.
A classy and exciting filly who has done exceedingly well in her limited career. She began racing as late as October where she went down fighting to Frivolous over a mile. She came to Mumbai and won her lead up very classily before out battling Hall of Famer to claim the Indian 1000 Guineas in just her 3rd career start. What was creditable was that Hall of Famer had an untroubled passage that day but Mrs. Patmore managed to collar her in spite of encountering traffic problems. Surprisingly connections opted to change tactics in the Oaks riding her well up with the pace so even though she looked to be travelling the best turning for home, she could not hold on when challenged by Temerity and appeared to be outstayed in the final furlong. However, there is a strong suspicion that reverting to hold up tactics and utilizing her potent turn of foot as she had in her previous 2 wins, could see her in a different light and she could well be the surprise package and bounce back to claim the Blue Riband. Louis Beuzelin who has been flown down to ride has precious little knowledge of the Mumbai track which could prove to be a decisive factor as well. Mrs. Patmore will run in the same colours as Jacqueline and looks a good back up for the Dhunjibhoy’s should Serjeant not stay the trip.
POSITIVES :-Has a potent turn of foot, more scope to improve, may have been wrongly ridden in the Oaks, trainer by a Master.
NEGATIVES :-Possible non stayer, jockey has no experience at Mahalaxmi. Out handicapped by Hall of Famer.
GERMANICUS (Whatsthescript x Phenomenale) 10 starts 5 wins
A battle hardened veteran of 10 races, for most of his career Germanicus has looked slightly below top rung, with Accolade easily beating him in the Pune Derby and finishing only 5th in the Indian 2000 Guineas. However, he has proved his worth by winning both the Golconda 2000 Guineas and the Derby, with the last run over 2400M being most impressive in a good time of 2.29.15 which proves that he stays the trip well. Diabolical won the Hyderabad Derby and travelled to Mumbai to defeat his more fancied stable companion Southern Empire in 2007 and Germanicus will attempt to repeat that feat. Tough and consistent, he will have the services of Imran Chisty in the saddle and is trained by Vishal Gaikwad..
POSITIVES :-Seems to stay the trip well, is tough and experienced.
NEGATIVES :-racing within a very short time frame, has travelled to Hyderabad and back, well beaten by Serjeant At Arms in the 2000 Guineas, Trainer and Jockey inexperienced in classic terms.
Some other interesting Trivia and Statistics
In the last 10 years a foreign jockey has been astride the Derby winner 8 times. There are 3 foreign riders in the fray this year – David Allan, Louis Beuzelin and Colm O Donoghue.
Fillies won 3 derbies on the trot between 2010 and 2012 but the last 4 years have been won by Colts. Is it time for a filly to reverse the trend ?
Except for Desert God (11) and Antonios (9), all the Derby winners in the last 10 years have come out of gates 1-4, with 4 being the most common. Hall of Famer is drawn 4 and Mrs. Patmore 1.
18 Fillies have won the Indian Derby with 9 of them completing the Oaks- Derby Double
Only 4 of the 42 greys that have competed in the Indian Derby have won although the last two have been fillies – Revelation (1985) and Cordon Bleu (1988).
The average for favourites winning the Derby is quite high – overall 44.59%. However, in this decade only 2 favourites have prevailed – Jacqueline (2010 and Be Safe (2015) – 28%. Is it time for the average to catch up ?
(Disclaimer : Views are entirely that of the correspondent only and RWITC takes no responsibility for the same)
