FROM THE HORSES MOUTH - RACE FORM ANALYSIS GUIDE FOR SUNDAY, 5TH FEBRUARY 2017 - By Cyrus Naterwalla
Posted on - 04 Feb 2017
FROM THE HORSES MOUTH - RACE FORM ANALYSIS GUIDE FOR SUNDAY, 5TH FEBRUARY 2017
By Cyrus Naterwalla
Race No. 1 :- The Mahindra Lifespaces Million – Class II – 1000M
SHIVALIK SHINE :-Has a good overall record with 4 wins from 12 starts and has quickly developed into a good sprint handicapper. She is slightly better off at the weights with Serenita on their earlier meeting this season and should have gained confidence from her last start win. She tends to be a little sluggish at the gates which is a concern but is working well and looks a strong contender.
SERENITA :-Very speedy customer who has won 4 of her 8 races and has yet to finish out of the first 3. She beat Shivalik Shine on slightly better terms over this trip earlier in the season but her last run was mystifying as she ended up last of 3, fizzling out tamely in the straight. She has been rested since then, has been working well and is quite capable of bouncing back.
ABBEY :-She has been wonderfully consistent throughout Pune and so far in Mumbai and after a string of close 2nd place finishes she was rewarded with a win last time out. She steps up in grade now but seems very well within herself and must come into calculations although she will need to find some more improvement.
CEZANNE :-Is an interesting 6 year old who came back from a setback in between his career to reach this level. He finished 3rd behind Shivalik Shine over this trip in Pune and is now better off at the weights. He has had a lung opener over 7 furlongs this season and is given a handicap chance to cause an upset.
CELTIC PRINCE :-Has been in rousing form this season albeit over 7 furlongs so it is interesting that his trainer drops him back to the minimum trip now. He looks in fine trim at present and although this will be very sharp for him, he could be considered as an interesting outsider.
CONCLUSION :-Serenita and Shivalik Shine should fight it out between them with Cezanne having a handicap chance and possibly an upset
Race No. 2 – The R.N. Kanga Gold Trophy (Grade 3) – Terms 4 Years Old & over – 1600M
MYRTLEWOOD :-Looks to have found an easy opportunity to redeem herself after having 2 dismal runs in Pune. She appears to be one of those horses for courses and seems to relish the Mahalaxmi track as she bounced back last time to be a good 3rd in the Harisinghji where she beat both todays rivals comfortably. On the same terms, she looks hard to overturn and is a proverbial good thing on paper.
B FIFTY TWO :-Is a late blooming sort who really came into his own after the Derby last year, scoring some impressive wins. He is effective over 1600-2000M but finished 4 ½ lengths behind Myrtlewood last time and it will take some magic from Irish ace Colm O’ Donoghue to reverse the places. He looks 2nd best.
AIRCO :-Is a solid middle distance horse in his own right but has come up short at this level and seems out of his depth against these 2 rivals. He can pick up some valuable stake money but in all likelihood should finish 3rd.
CONCLUSION :-Myrtlewoodshould win this comfortably from B Fifty Two
Race No. 3 :- The Grand Turf Racing & Realty Million – Class IV – 2400M
RAEES :-Is a progressive and improving 4 year old who seems likely to be suited by this step up in trip. After running some suggestive races over similar trips, he really came into his own over 2000M last time out, winning as he pleased. He has incurred a 7 kilo penalty for that win but seems to be improving rapidly and could take it in his stride.
SOVEREIGNSKY:- Appears to be one of the maidens with the hottest placed form having run promisingly several times in the past and has been gradually stepping up in distance as well. Attempting this trip for the first time last time out, he finished on strongly to be a close 3rd to Winter Renaissance and it is interesting that Sandesh has opted to ride him instead of Raees which could be an indicator. He looks fit and well and may finally gain an overdue maiden success.
IMITATION GAME :-She is sparingly raced 4 year old who is making her seasonal reappearance and hence has fitness to prove after the break. She won impressively over this trip on her penultimate start but then could only finish 5th next time out under a statutory penalty. However, she does have the scope to improve and if fit and ready could prove a danger to all.
HIS MASTERS VICE :-Looked a progressive 4 year old but flopped quite badly over 1800M last time out and now has questions to answer. He ran very flat that day for no apparent reason and has to bounce back. His style of racing suggests he should stay this longer trip, he has been working well and Y.S. Srinath takes over in the saddle. He could upset if bouncing back.
CONCLUSION :-Sovereignskylooks set to shed his maiden tag finally with stiff opposition from the improving Raees. Imitation Game could be a danger if fit and ready to go.
Race No. 4 :_- The Sshaawn’s Million – Class 5 – 1600M
BRAZOS :- Has run 6 times till date and hinted that he was finding some form last time out when finishing on well under a 5 kilo claimer to be 2nd to Ladislaus over 6 furlongs. He steps up to a mile now and J. Chinoy takes over so he is expected to do well and is just one to consider in this large field.
ASTARA :-Is another potential improver who is an unknown quantity. She ran 4th on debut over 6 furlongs in Pune and then finished 6th over 1400M in Mumbai. She makes her handicap debut off a very lenient mark and hence is one to watch out for with maximum scope to improve.
FIRENZE :- Thrice raced 4 year old who had 2 modest efforts over 6 furlongs in Pune placing on both occasions and then ran 5th in her only start in Mumbai over 7 furlongs. She too has a nice pedigree, has been working well and merits strong each way consideration.
MILWALKEE :-Has raced 7 times till date once over 5 furlongs and all the other runs over 6, with one placed effort. 2 of those runs came early in the Mumbai season he has brought along steadily since then. It is interesting that he steps up to a mile for the first time and Y.S. Srinath has been booked for the ride. Both his siblings, Spirit of Mercy and Hidden Power came into their own over this sort of trip and he is one to take note of.
SWEEPING MOVE :-Is a 6 year old but has run just 8 times in her career returning from a long absence to finish a fair 5th on both her starts this season. She is another who has the potential to improve and with P.S. Chouhan up, must come into the reckoning.
SIR SONG :- Has an uneven profile overall with just a solitary win from 28 starts but he has come back down in the scales as a result and has finished a close 3rd on his last 2 starts over this trip. He looks in good form at present but is more exposed and hence may be vulnerable to one of the 4 year olds.
SECRET FLAME :-She is a course and distance winner a couple of starts ago and seems to have held her form quite well since then. Her trainer usually does well in big field handicaps like this and she is worth taking into consideration each way.
RESILIENT :- Is now 7 years of age and has been running mainly in older company so he looks up against it facing so many younger horses. He comes into this in good form, having finished 2nd the last twice over 7 furlongs and could fight it out for minor honours.
CONCLUSION :-An extremely tough and competitive race and it is almost impossible to recommend any one particular individual. Milwalkeeis just a tentative selection
Race No. 5 – The Dr. M.A.M. RamaswamyMulti Million – Maidens – 3 Years Old Only – 1600M
ZANARA :-Dallas Todywalla seems to have some top 3 year olds this season and Zanara looks the obvious first choice here. She was not given the best of rides when odds on for her debut over 7 furlongs and began to get the hang of things very late in the day. She motored home to be a close 2nd to Timeless Deeds that day and would have won in another couple of strides. The Owner – Trainer _ Jockey combination had a double on Oaks day and look set to continue their success.
PERFECT STAR :-Ran a fine race on debut but was green and inexperienced which probably cost him as he lost out to Glyndebourne by a whisker although he was fitter than her that day so her run on Saturday will give an indicator to the form. He is sure to have learnt plenty from the experience and is expected to run a very big race today trying to win the race named after his owner.
ADMO :-Caught the eye on debut as he ran a very forward race in spite of looking unfit and finished a close 3rd to Ruffina who has franked the form. His subsequent work indicates that he has improved for the run but whether the step up to a mile will suit him is an unknown. He looks a nice sort and should come into consideration although the trip is a question mark.
WE BREAK THE RULES :-Is a half brother to the well performed Whomakestherules who won the Kolkotta 2000 Guineas before unfortunately breaking down. He was given a nice educative run on debut finishing about 5 ½ lengths behind Zanara with Gold Bond in 3rd. He is sure to have improved appreciably for that run and should leave that running well behind with SurajNarredu taking over.
GOLD BOND :-Also had a nice educative run on debut finishing on to be 3rd a little over a length behind Zanara. There is no obvious reason why he should reverse that form but he too seems to have improved and is worthy of each way consideration.
LORD OF THE SEA :-Finished way behind Perfect Star last time out and will need to show dramatic improvement if he is to reverse the form. However, youngsters from the Pesi Shroff yard improve significantly from first run to second and he is sure to run much better today. He has been working well and could be a dark horse.
CONCLUSION :-Zanaralooks a likely winner here with Perfect Star a live danger and both We Break The Rules and Gold Bond capable of being involved as well
Race No. 6 :- The B.K. Rattonsey Memorial Maiden MultiMillion – Maidens 3 Years Old only – 1200M
ROOSEVELT :-Had an introductory run over 5 furlongs where he was given an easy race and finished on nicely to be 4th to Goldie’s Pet just behind Lady Sergeant who reopposes today. He should improve appreciably for the run and is expected to be much sharper today. His sire Power was a crack sprinter in England while his dam Sinetta placed twice over longer trips. He looks a strong contender.
BENEFACTOR :-Is a debutant from the MaleshNarredu yard who has been judiciously prepared with this event in view. He has been blazing the track in his preparatory work and looks an exciting prospect. He is the first foal of Lovely Kiss who is by Rebuttal and won 4 races ranging from 6 furlongs to a mile. He looks primed to run a big race on debut.
AWESOME HOOVES :-Is one of the first juveniles for new young rookie Shazaan Shah and is another who has been catching the eye in the morning trials. He has been solidly prepared and should be fit and raring to go. While the progeny of Phoenix Tower have been accumulating accolades, this is the first foal of Dance To The Tune who won 2 races over 1100 and 1400M early in her career.
GALLANT KNIGHT :-Was withdrawn on his intended debut a couple of weeks ago but was fancied that day and has had a couple of additional weeks to strengthen up and improve. He has shown good speed in his last few workouts and should be ready for a belated debut. The dam Star Angel has thrown some useful sorts the best being Brigadier who won 4 races as well as Speed Angel and Striking View. He has P.S. Chouhan in the saddle but has drawn a wide draw at 13.
CAPRISCA :-Is another debutant who catches the eye on pedigree. One of the few Steinbeck’s to be seen nowadays, her mother is the multi classic winning mare Xisca who won the Deccan Derby, swept most of the Kolkotta Classics barring the 1000 Guineas and finished 3rd in the Indian Derby and 2nd in the Invitation Cup to the brilliant Moonlight Romance. Her prep work has not been as extensive as a couple of these but it has been quite pleasing and she is sure to build on whatever she does today..
GNOSTIC EYES :-Is a full brother to Devoted Eyes who looks a little short on preparatory work and seems to be out for an airing but must be respected on his pedigree and his sister was the leading juvenile of last season so it is very dangerous to ignore him with C. Alford booked to ride.
LADY SERGEANT :-Finished a pleasing 3rd on debut to Goldie’s Pet beating several of these in the process and is sure to improve and has the massive advantage of experience. She may lack the potential class of some of these but looks straightforward and should be in the thick of things.
CONCLUSION :-Roosevelt is given an edge as he has had the benefit of race experience and is fancied narrowly over Benefactor, Awesome Hooves and Gallant Knight in that order.
Race No. 7 :- The Kingfisher Ultra Indian Derby (Grade 1) – Terms – 4 Years Old Only – 2400M
SERJEANT AT ARMS :-This brilliant son of Ikhtyar has to head the list of potential Derby winners and he would surely be a most popular winner if he were to cross the finish line first. Disregarded by many top Trainers as a juvenile, he quickly matured into a true Champion having tasted defeat just once in the Mysore Derby won in record time by Ice Glacier. He is by far the best miler among the current crop and the only niggling doubt is his ability to stay the gruelling mile and a half trip at what promises to be a frenetic pace. Sandesh is yet to win an Indian Derby and the Serjeant would probably give him his best opportunity yet to do so.
HALL OF FAMER :-The out station challenger and fancied by many to topple the Serjeant. Her ruthless demolition of Accolade and Silver Beauty in the Kolkotta Derby puts her firmly in front of the first four in the Oaks, she is a proven stayer over this trip and her Master Trainer has won 2 of the last 5 Indian Derbies so there are plenty of positives to back up her confidence. She arrived here early to acclimatize, is well rested and will surely have a large following as well.
TEMERITY :-Has gone from strength to strength since her debut run, except for a minor blip in the 1000 Guineas where she played up in the gates and did not run a race at all. She bounced back in fine fashion in the Indian Oaks decisively beating Mrs. Patmore and Silver Beauty and may be peaking at just the right time. She looks to have a marginal edge among Pesi Shroff’s 3 runners and is another who looks to be a confirmed stayer.
MRS. PATMORE :-Wonder filly who beat Hall of Famer to win the Indian 1000 Guineas in just her 3rd career start before going down to Temerity in the Oaks. She was ridden very aggressively that day, looked to be going the best turning for home but then could not find more when challenged by Temerity. Both her previous wins have come by sitting off the pace and utilizing her potent turn of foot and connections are expected to revert to those tactics again tomorrow. If she gets the run of the race, she could upset the applecart of them all.
GERMANICUS :-Has been a solid and workmanlike performer who is already a dual Classic winner and looked vastly improved when scoring a decisive win in the Hyderabad Derby clocking a fast time of 2.29.15 seconds. He travels and races again within the short span of a week but is another who has no problems staying and he could prove to be a value for money outsider.
SALAZAAR :-Is another outstation challenger who has probably the least experience amongst these barring Mrs. Patmore but clearly has a great deal of potential. After winning his first 2 races, he travelled to Chennai where he finished 4th in the 2000 Guineas but then stepped up to win the South India Derby quite easily and has been supplemented for this race. He could improve further but looks a little short of the level required to win a race of this stature.
CONCLUSION :-Serjeant At Arms should be a popular winner if he stays the mile and a half trip well and is selected to give Sandesh and S.S. Attaollahi a maiden Indian Derby success. Hall of Fame is highly respected and she looks to be a very read danger. Mrs. Patmore can shock one and all if she gets the run of the race while the improving Temerity cannot be ignored. A thriller in store overall
Race No. 8 :- The Banarsidas Million – Class III – 1200M
ALLORA :-Began her career in promising fashion but finished down the field in the Poonawalla Million and could only manage a poor 4th on her next and only run in Pune. She seems to have improved on returning to Mumbai and snuck home in a blanket finish last time out. She has not been harshly penalized and bags the plum No 1 draw so looks to have an excellent chance to repeat with P. Trevor booked again.
SHAOQING :-Has won both her starts over 6 furlongs, scoring a comfortable win last time out in the lower class. She is upped in grade now but seems to have maintained her form and fitness but her inexperienced rider will have to keep her out of trouble from the wide draw.
BENEZEER :-Is sparingly raced but clearly has ability and finished on strongly to be 2nd to Alisha’s Pet last time out, just ahead of Magical Memory and Stardom Calling. Her first run is usually her best so she needs to maintain her form but she is working well and is one to consider in a very tricky finale.
MAGICAL MEMORY :- Has been working his way back into form after a relatively insipid Pune campaign and ran a blinder last time out in a similar contest, sneaking through along the inside and ending up a very close 3rd. He is closely matched with Benezeer on that run and is another who has to come into consideration.
MINSTREL HEIGHTS :- Has done all his winning over 5 furlongs but looks capable of getting at least this far and finished a game 2nd to Mt. Tianmen in a bunched finish last time out. He looks in good condition at present and if P.S. Chouhan can harness his energy, he should be right there at the end.
STARDOM CALLING :-Is very consistent over this sort of trip but she has not seemed to be progressing in 2 starts this season and looks to be stagnating a bit. She is well drawn in 2 and Y.S. Srinath is a good booking so she must be considered as well although some improvement is required.
DOUBLE NINE :- Has run both starts over 5 furlongs this term, last time just unable to reel in the determined Abbey and his late burst suggests he will prefer the extra furlong. He looks in good touch at present and could be a big factor off the low weight.
CONCLUSION :-A very tricky puzzle for punters to solve with Alloraoffered as a tentative selection
(Disclaimer : Views are entirely that of the correspondent only and RWITC takes no responsibility for the same)
