FROM THE HORSES MOUTH - RACE FORM ANALYSIS GUIDE FOR SUNDAY, 22ND JANUARY 2017 - By Cyrus Naterwalla
Posted on - 21 Jan 2017
FROM THE HORSES MOUTH - RACE FORM ANALYSIS GUIDE FOR SUNDAY, 22ND JANUARY 2017
- By Cyrus Naterwalla
Race No. 1 – The Lt. Col VRC Trophy – Maiden 3 year olds – 1400M
BIG SUR :-Appears to be the most obvious starting point here. He finished a good 3rd on debut to Texas Gold over 6 furlongs on debut and has the big advantage of prior experience. He looked soft that day so should strip fitter and with the extra furlong to suit, good recent work and Sandesh up, he looks a leading contender.
ROCHESTER : - Looks the most forward of the debutantes and has a nice pedigree to boot. He has arguably been working the best of this bunch and Shiraz Sunderji is doing well with his juveniles this season. His dam Krasnaya has already produced the well performed Kolors who has won 7 races in Hyderabad and he looks primed to have a bold show on debut.
SECRET HARMONY :-is another first timer worthy of a mention from the powerful MAM Ramaswamy yard. His work suggests that he may need this outing and the booking of Bhawani Singh instead of first jockey P.S. Chouhan also hints at the same. His dam Wondrous Joy has produced a 4 race winner in What A Wonder and hence he comes into consideration.
DIXIELAND :-Looks the more fancied of the two Pesi Shroff runners. She was scheduled to run last month but played up at the start and was withdrawn. She has had additional time to be prepared and should be fitter and sharper. Her dam Maun Vrat was modestly performed herself and this is her first foal in Western India so she is a bit of an unknown. She must be respected.
GLORIOSUS :-Is the other runner with experience having finished 4th on debut, not too far behind Big Sur and is also likely to improve for the extra furlong. There is no obvious reason why he should improve past Big Sur but he has the experience and is likely to figure in the finish.
CONCLUSION :- Big Sur seems to have the advantage here with Rochester and Dixieland looking the main dangers.
Race No. 2 – The P.B. Avasia Trophy – Class II and III – 1200M.
PARAMOUR :-Looked like he needed the run last time out when finishing a good 2nd to the classy Denny Crane and with the fitness from that run, should return to the winner’s circle now. He beat several of these last time out and looks a reasonably solid selection on paper.
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FINAL ENCOUNTER :-Has always been working well but not quite reproduced it on the race track. However he won decisively on the opening day of the season but hasn’t raced since then which is a slight concern. His last couple of workouts have been good though and if resuming in the same vein then he should be a big danger.
SHIVALIK SHINE :-Has looked in the handicappers grip since winning over this trip in Pune and has been racing mainly over 5 furlongs. She has also developed a habit of missing the kick which is crucial in a sprint contest. She finished well behind Paramour last time out and the only encouraging sign is that she has been working exceptionally well of late. If breaking on level terms she could cause an upset.
HIDDEN SOUL :-Is another who looks like needing to find some improvement before returning to the winners circle. Winner of back to back races in Pune, she has run modestly this season and place looks a more likely prospect.
SYDNEY HARBOUR :-Looked a very exciting prospect early in her career but seems to have most her way in her last two starts. She was well behind Final Encounter and Paramour on her last 2 starts and she has something to prove now. She looks an upset at best.
CONCLUSION :-Paramour looks a reasonably good selection here and should win this on current form. Final Encounter can prove to be a danger if resuming in the same vein as can Shivalik Shine if reproducing her excellent track work.
Race No. 3 – The HarrishMehra Trophy – Class IV and V – 1600M
TORREZZO :-Is unexposed as he has run just 5 times till date and showed the first signs of some ability when finishing on casually to make the frame last time out. He represents the all conqueringShirke – Dhunjibhoy partnership and HosidarDaji has his small string in fine fettle at present. He has been working well suggesting that he has improved further and off a reasonable mark, can strike now if progressing.
ABBEYROAD :- Gave an eye catching performance on a belated racing debut when being prominent before drifting out to the stands rail but still finishing 5th over 1200M. She looks likely to be suited by the more galloping trip and has been showing out very prominently in the morning gallops. Her dam Chapman’s Peak has already produced some decent performers over this trip and she is one to keep an eye on.
ICE ANGEL :- Is a 5 race maiden but looked an unlucky loser last time out when feebly handled by Santosh G and finishing a close 2nd over 6 furlongs. Y.S. Srinath now takes over in the saddle and if staying the extra 400M well, she should be in the thick of things.
VICE ADMIRAL :-Is also sparingly raced for his age and appears to be recovering from a setback after finishing midfield in the Independence Cup in Pune. He has been solidly prepared for his comeback run and did win over course and distance last Mumbai. Sandesh takes the ride and if fit and well, he could topple them all.
CARE FREE :-Looked a winner last time out when taking it up with 100M to go but was shocked by The Other Song close home. She too is lightly raced for a 6 year old and if building on the last run, she could make amends.
RASHUN :-Went very close to scoring last time out when finishing 2nd in a photo over this trip but his overall profile is unreliable and he is tackling some unexposed younger horses. He merits consideration but is given just a small outside chance to upset..
CONCUSION :-A competitive event. Torrezzolooks a scopey sort who is an unknown quantity and could be good enough to tackle this lot. Abbeyroadran with a lot of promise on debut and should be a force to reckon with while Ice Angel and Care Free also merit serious thought
Race No. 4 – The Gool S. Poonawalla Million – Terms 3 years old only – 1200M
SUMMER RAYS :-Was the most visually impressive of those that have already won a race, showing a nice turn of foot to strike the front and win most convincingly. She appears to have improved since judging from recent workouts and ImtiazSait has his youngsters in good form. She looks one of the main fancies.
RUFFINA :-A half sister to Lady Danehill was also most impressive on debut, scoring a decisive win and has also been working extremely well. She did not look fully wound up that day so is sure to improve and David Allan is an eye catching jockey booking. She is working well and makes the short list.
WISE CHILD :-Very impressive winner over 1000M on debut and the form could not have worked out better with the reopposing 2nd and 3rd both winning next time out. He is sure to strip fitter, should not be troubled by the extra furlong and looks the form pick in this competitive contest.
TEXAS GOLD :-Finished 3rd to Wise Child on debut and then easily accounted for Cerrado next time out. She now has a penalty to defy but seems in top form and should go well again.
GOLDIE’S PET :- Split Texas Gold and Wise Child on debut and then duly scored over 1000M next time out comfortably holding Thursday’s winner Gods Own. She steps up a furlong but is also working superbly and should not be written off.
CERRADO :- Has finished 2nd to Summer Rays and Texas Gold on each of his runs but now has a 4 kilo pull in the weights. He is another who looks to have a good handicap chance but did not appear to improve much on his 2nd start and still looks vulnerable.
CONCLUSION :-As expected for one of the first big Millions this looks an extremely competitive affair on paper. Summer Rays, Ruffina and Wise Child should fight it out for supremacy.
Race No. 5 :- The Mirchi Million – Class III – 1400M.
ROSELLA :-Got going very late in the contest when finishing a close 2nd to Celtic Prince who has confirmed the form most decisively since. Her style of racing suggests that she will relish the extra furlong and she has the services of Y.S. Srinath in the saddle. She looks a very strong fancy.
MISS SAIGON :-Comes into this race unbeaten and bidding for a hatrick after a win apiece in Pune and Mumbai. However, she struggled to win last time out and only got on top close home. That being her seasonal debut she is likely to improve and is also hard to oppose.
GOLDEN ECLIPSE :-Is another who has been going from strength to strength this term and has won impressively on both his starts and his style of racing too suggests he will relish more galloping ground. He comes into this in the pink of condition and will do his best to complete a fine hatrick.
SAWGRASS :-Made an excellent reappearance coming back from a longish break when finishing a good close 2ndto Dancing Lord last time out and is sure to improve for the run. She won back to back races in Mumbai last season but looks up against some progressive types and looks to have a tough task. She can battle for minor honours.
ETERNAL SUNSHINE :-A one time Classic hopeful she finished midfield in the 1000 Guineas and this looks decidedly easier. However, she has yet to taste success over this trip and even on her best form, looks a lively outsider .
FLASHY WINGS :-Has finished 4th both starts this term but was an impressive winner on his last start in Pune. The form of his last run has been working out extremely well and he could be one to upset at a long price.
CONCLUSION :- It looks to be an extremely close affair between Rosella, Miss Saigon and Golden Eclipse
Race No. 6 :- The VillooPoonawalla Indian Oaks – Group I – Terms Indian Fillies 4 years old only – 2400M
MRS PATMORE :-She looks likely to start the favourite here and has impressed one and all in her limited career so far. A gutsy winner over the more battle hardened Hall of Famer in the Indian 1000 Guineas, she has been solidly prepared by her Master Trainer and has the maximum scope to improve. Her preparatory work has been good and the only nagging doubt is if she will stay the trip but she clearly has the class and is the one to beat.
TEMERITY :-A stable companion of Mrs. Patmore is the highest rated in this field and has some solid form to her name, winning fluently on her penultimate start. She played up in the gates when going off favourite for the Indian 1000 Guineas and that clearly affected her and she did not run anywhere near her best. Her pedigree suggests she should definitely stay the trip and if she has bounced back then she is a very real danger.
MEKONG DELTA :-Has made huge strides this season, and was the fastest moving at the end in the 1000 Guineas when finishing a very close 3rd just ¾ length behind the first two. Whether that was a freak run or not remains to be seen but she is another who looks likely to stay and although having less scope to improve, she must come into consideration.
ASTER ROSE :-Is the only outstation challenger who had some good staying form to her name but was hugely disappointing when flopping at odds on in the Golconda Oaks and finishing a tame 3rd to Veronesse and Frosty. She needs to bounce back significantly from that run and has to be given just a small outside chance.
CONCLUSION :-Mrs. Patmore is the clear selection with her main danger appearing to be stable companion Temerity and if the pair fail to stay, Mekong Delta is a plausible alternative
Race No. 7 :- The TricumdasDwarkadas Trophy – Class IV – 1200M
POLLYANNA :-Was a runaway winner of her maiden in Pune and there is a suspicion that she was not at her best when running 3rd to Charming next time out. She has unfortunately drawn a wide draw at 13 but is working well and should run much better today.
WILD JACK :-has shown significant improvement this season, finishing 2nd on each of his starts. He likes to race prominently so should not be troubled by the shorter trip and could make it 3rd time lucky.
LADY IN RED :-Was an impressive runner when 2nd on debut in Pune but flopped badly when only 4th at odds on over 7 furlongs on her reappearance. She showed no zip that day but returns to this shorter trip and can be forgiven one poor run. She must be considered.
DOLPHIN :-Has raced twice till date, finishing a good 2nd on debut over this trip in Pune and then 5th over 1000M on her last run in Mumbai. She should improve for the step up to this trip and be fitter so is another who looks to have a shot at earning her bracket. C.S. Jodha is the stables first rider and she should go well..
CONCLUSION :- Pollyanna and Wild Jack look the two to focus on in the finale
(Disclaimer : Views are entirely that of the correspondent only and RWITC takes no responsibility for the same)
