FROM THE HORSES MOUTH - RACE FORM ANALYSIS GUIDE FOR SUNDAY, 15TH JANUARY 2017 - By Cyrus Naterwalla
Posted on - 14 Jan 2017
FROM THE HORSES MOUTH - RACE FORM ANALYSIS GUIDE FOR SUNDAY, 15TH JANUARY 2017
- By Cyrus Naterwalla
Race No. 1 – The Yawar Rashid Trophy - Class II – 1400M
ARTISTIC :- She is a beautifully progressive 4 year old having won 3 of her last 4 starts and is now bidding for a four timer, having scored twice over 7 furlongs in Pune and winning her last start on this track quite convincingly as well. She returns after a break of about 6 weeks but if resuming in the same vein, she looks hard to beat with leading jockey Sandesh in the saddle.
STAR COUNCILLOR: -Returned from a long absence to finish an impressive close 4th in the Hyderabad 2000 Guineas so it was a bit disappointing when he failed to hold off Charging Tigress last time out. However, he is now weighted to gain revenge on that rival and if having needed the lung opener on the Mahalaxmi track, he looks a live danger and is working extremely well.
KOROL: -Returned from a 3 month break to score a shock victory over 6 furlongs earlier in the season, coming with a strong run from the rear to win in good style. She hasn’t raced since then so again has to deal with a 6 week absence but seems in good nick and could trouble the two 4 year olds as she will prefer the extra furlong.
CHARGING TIGRESS: - Came with a sustained late run to shock Star Councillor close home last time out but is worse off with him now under her penalty. Her apprentice rider takes 3 ½ kilos off to negate that somewhat but she will need to pull out further improvement to confirm the form and looks more of a place prospect.
CELTIC PRINCE: - Has run well both starts this season, winning well on reappearance and then finishing a close 3rd behind Charging Tigress and Star Councillor last time out. There is no obvious reason why he should reverse the places with those two but can run into a place.
CONCLUSION: - Artistic looks a progressive sort and she is selected to make it 4 in a row but Star Councillor can be a big threat if he shows some improvement from his last run. Charging Tigress and Korol look the best among the older horses and can upset
Race No. 2:- The Ramniwas Ramnarain Ruia Gold Cup (Grade 2)– 4 years old only – 2000M
SERJEANT AT ARMS: -Stands head and shoulders above his 2 rivals on official ratings plus current form and it would really be one of the biggest surprises of the season were he to be beaten here. He has looked a little suspect over this trip in top company both times that he has attempted it , having to be ridden to hold off Aster Rose in the Bangalore Summer Derby and going down narrowly to Ice Glacier in the Mysore Derby, but looks unlikely to be really tested by either of these and the small field may not ensure a true run race.
ST. ANDREWS:-Looks the only one with the theoretical chance of causing a huge upset here. He was a big talking horse well before his first run and won impressively over 6 furlongs beating Domination. Something went majorly wrong in the Poonawalla Multimillion where he finished way down the field and was off the race track for almost a year. His reappearance in the 2000 Guineas was notable as he finished on nicely to be 3rd, 6 ½ lengths behind the Serjeant. He should improve appreciably for that run and should be closer today. There are mixed messages from the pedigree as Riyasat won the Oaks but both Nefyn and Marine One were quality sprinters although his manner of racing suggests he should stay well.
HIGHLAND BREEZE :-Has looked a useful handicapper upto now but seems way out of his league compared to these two. He could only finish midfield in the Pune Derby and seems short of the class required to be a Classic winner. He should earn some useful stake money but will in all probability finish 3rd.
CONCLUSION :-Serjeant At Arms should win this quite easily with St. Andrews possibly challenging him if showing significant improvement after his Guineas run
Race No. 3 :- The Lachman K. Advani and Maya L. Advani Trophy – Class IV – 1600M
OTHELLO :-is an interesting and unexposed contender who is making his handicap debut. He began his racing career in October only, running two unplaced races but looked to have improved on his previous start when he finished 5th just outside the frame. He begins handicaps on a reasonable mark, has been working well of late and being a half brother to Cabriolet and Reynolds and a full brother to Berlusconi, could have the class to beat this lot.
GLORIOUS EYES :-Was unlucky not to have won on her penultimate start, coming virtually from last to first and only losing out by a whisker in a race where the form has worked out well. She failed as a hot favourite last time out but was prominently ridden that day and faded away tamely. Reverting to hold up tactics could reap rich dividends and if ridden in the right manner, she can return to the winner’s circle.
SUMAAQ :-who looked like returning to form when finishing on to be 4th about a length behind Glorious Eyes last time out. He should improve for that run, is working well and looks to have a strong each way chance if building on that last effort.
PRINCE OF HEART :-is an enigmatic 5 year old who gained an overdue maiden success last time out. He was returning from a long lay off that day so should improve for the run and the runner up Winter Renaissance has franked the form. He could just be coming right now and should make a bold bid to repeat under just a 5 kilo penalty.
NELSONS BLOOD :-is an interesting debutant also from the Vishal Gaikwad yard. He too is making a belated racing debut but his half sister Laurita was a regional Classic winner and he looks a dark horse who could spring a surprise and could be one to be on at a price if looking well in the paddock.
ELSA :-Looks another lively outsider who could run well at a huge price. She began her career with 2 good placed efforts over sprints but then lost her way and ran a couple of poor races. Her last effort where she finished on strongly from the rear to make the frame was encouraging and she attempts this longer trip for the first time and could make the frame.
CONCLUSION :- Othello has the bloodlines and class to possibly outdo this lot if he continues to progress and improve with Glorious Eyes being the form pick provided that she is ridden in restraint. Sumaaq and Prince of Hearts both look capable of winning as well while Nelsons Blood is a very interesting outsider.
Race No. 4 :- The Forbes India Cup – Class III – 2000M
FRIVOLOUS :-needs to win this in good style of give MaleshNarredu a realistic Derby contender from among the colts. He looked a very exciting prospect when beating Mrs. Patmore over a mile on debut but could only finish 3rd to Pugnacious and Mekong Delta on his Guineas lead up run. He played up in the stalls before the start of the Guineas and hence may not have given his true running finishing 6th on that occasion. Having just his 4th career start, he has the scope to improve and receiving weight all around, he looks a leading contender.
SHERLOCK :-looks to be the most obvious danger as he too is relatively unexposed and improving. He has shown improvement in each of his 3 starts and his last pillar to post win over a mile was impressive although the form of that race could have been better. He too is working well, could find more improvement with 400M more to travel and is expected to run a big race.
PUGNACIOUS :- has really come into his own over the last 6 months and has won 3 of his last 4 starts, last time out giving Frivolous 5 kilos and a beating. He now has to concede 10 kilos to his owner mate over 400M further and although he looks to have maintained his form and fitness conceding so much weight looks a tough ask and he should fight it out for minor honours.
MULTIGLORY :-is a winner of 2 of his 13 starts, his last victory coming over 9 furlongs. After a couple of indifferent runs, he looked on the way back to form when finishing a good 2nd last time out to Palatial and comes into this race in good form. He has not been the most consistent in the past but can cause a flutter if running upto his best.
CONCLUSION :-Frivolous is expected to shrug off his last 2 efforts and win this decisively if he is at all to be a factor in the Indian Derby with Sherlock looking a big danger
Race No.5 :- The Sir H.M. Mehta Trophy – Class III – 1200M
ALISHA’S PET :-Has already proved herself to be a useful handicapper winning 2 of her 9 starts in good style. Reappearing after a 2 month break, she ran an excellent race last time out, finishing a close 5th in a bunched finish after looking a big danger before fitness possibly became an issue. She should strip fitter today, is working well and looks a leading contender to return to winning ways.
IRISH BAILEY :-has done very well in his limited career so far and continues to progress. He returned from an 8 month absence to score decisively over this trip in the lower class and then ran a good 3rd under top weight last time out. He moves up in grade but gets a welcome weight respite and with P. S. Chouhan in the saddle, is expected to be in the thick of things on just his 4th start.
MAGICAL MEMORY :-Did not quite go on from his impressive winning debut but was given some tough tasks making his handicap debut in Class III and then running the S.A. Poonawalla Multimillion on just his 3rd start. He has done better returned to sprinting and finished just behind Alisha’s Pet last time out. He merits each way consideration.
MADURO :-Was thought good enough to contest the Bangalore Summer Colts Trial Stakes after making a promising winning debut but came up well short at that level. He needed his first run since August when finishing 4th over 1000M last time out and should improve significantly on that run. The extra furlong should suit and he should go well.
BENEZEER :-Has been lightly raced for her age but usually goes well fresh with both her previous wins coming on her first run of the season. Her last couple of workouts have been good and if she is fit and well then a big run is expected from her again today..
STARDOM CALLING :-Has been quite consistent over this trip and off this mark but needs to show some more improvement to be able to earn a bracket. She has been working well and looks in good nick but seems more of a place contender in what looks a competitive event.
CONCLUSION :-This looks a competitive event with Alisha’s Pet the tentative selection but many other possibilities. Benezeerusually runs well fresh while Irish Bailey has been showing steady progression and Maduro could strike if improving on his last run
Race No. 6 :- The Radheshyam Jhunjhunwala Million – Terms 4 years old and over – 1400M
HOLY SMOKE :-Was one of the rare horses to win 5 races on the trot, leaping up the handicap before finishing just 6th in Pune in the Turf Club Trophy – his first Group race. Off the track since then he returned with a fine performance in the Gracious Saldanha Million leading almost all the way and finishing a very close 3rd to Critics Choice. That run should have blown away the cobwebs and now back up to his pet distance of 7 furlongs he looks to have an excellent chance of gaining his first Group Race success.
CRITICS CHOICE :-Has a similar profile to Holy Smoke, having won 6 of her 8 starts and 5 of the last 6, her only defeat coming when she looked to have gone over the top at the end of Pune. She has won both her races with authority this season beating many of these last time out but steps upto 7 furlongs for the first time and penalty will just take the edge off her a bit. Still capable of winning as she is in great heart.
DANCING PRANCES :-is the Grand Old Man of sprinting and has acquitted himself admirably over a 28 race career having an exceptional 50% strike rate with 14 wins. Age seemed to be catching up with him for the first time when finishing 4th last time out but he is fully capable of bouncing back and is very dangerous to ignore.
CONGRESSIONAL :-Warmed up for this with an excellent 2nd to Critics Choice over 6 furlongs last time out and will be much more at home over the additional furlong. He is taking on some good improving younger horses but is in good form and must come into consideration.
CONCLUSION :-Holy Smoke and Critics Choice should fight it out for supremacy with both Dancing Prances and Congressional looking big threats from among the older horses
Race No. 7 :- The Fight Hunger Foundation Trophy – Maiden Indian Horses 3 years old only – 1200M
ART OF WAR :-Has the advantage of having had an educational run, running a forward race and finishing 4th to Ruffina. He has been working extremely well since the run indicating that he has improved and now looks to have a very good chance to score.
WINDSOR FOREST :-Comes from the Pesi Shroff yard and is a half sister to Continental so merits serious respect on that score. She looks a little short on prep work and may need this run but it would be no surprise if she were good enough to win this.
TIMELESS :- Is another who has been showing out well in the morning gallops although her yard is not known for producing many first time out winners. She is the 2nd foal of Showstopper and her sire Surfrider is relatively new to India so there is not much to go on via pedigree but she should run well with Trevor up.
LA MAGNIFIQUE :-Has been arguably working the best of this bunch and looks well prepared to run a big race on debut. Her young trainer has already shown that he has ability by training the likes of Alaindair and An Acquired Taste and she is one to consider here.
STUNNER :-Appears to have a speedy pedigree with her dam Monopoly very speedy herself. She does not look as forward as some of the yard’s leading lights but juveniles usually tend to be quite forward and she must be considered.
CONCLUSION :-Art of War is given the edge considering he has the huge benefit of experience and is working well. La Magnifiqueand Timeless have both been working very well while Windsor Forest could be the class act in this field
Race No. 8 :- The Mohammed Rasheed Beg & Rahat Beg Trophy – Class IV – 1000M
FURIOSA :-Showed good speed to gain her maiden success on her last run in Pune and was withdrawnat the start when starting favourite last time out. She has been showing a lot of speed in the morning trials and looks to have a very good chance to repeat.
GRAN PARADISO :-Has been running consistently well since winning her maiden over this trip in Pune in September and finished 4th over 6 furlongs in a similar contest last time out. She seems better over 1000M at present and could bounce back to winning ways now.
IMPOSSIBLE DREAM :-has a lovely sprinting pedigree and began his career only in December so Has tremendous scope to improve. He led for a long way over 1200M last time out and dropping back to 5 furlongs with YashNarredu taking over, he looks to have a good each way chance.
DESERT RAGE :-Has been skilfully brought back down to his last winning mark so although he has no current form to recommend his chances, he looks well placed on the scales and could strike if in a galloping mood.
ALPINE EXPRESS :-is a winner of one of her 9 starts showing good speed to win her maiden but running quite inconsistently besides that. Her last 10 days ago was quite good as even though finishing 9th she was only 4 lengths behind the winner and if she can build on that then she merits an each way consideration.
ADAM’S BEGINNING :-Is another unexposed 4 year old who stepped up markedly on her 2 previous runs when finishing on late to be an eye catching 3rd on the opening day. She hasn’t been out since then and inexperienced claimer replaces D.S. Daman so she may be out for an airing but must be closely watched although drop in trip is not ideal.
CONCLUSION :-Furiosalooks the most likely to score here but as always these races prove to be very competitive. Impossible Dream and Adam’s Beginning head the list of potential improvers while Desert Rage too looks a danger if bouncing back
(Disclaimer: Views are entirely that of the correspondent only and RWITC takes no responsibility for the same)
