It's Phoenix Tigers moment in the sun - By Tom Krish
Posted on - 04 Feb 2016
It's Phoenix Tiger's moment in the sun
-By Tom Krish
Racing luck will play a bigger than usual part in the Indian Derby on Sunday. Twenty (four year-olds) will answer the starter's call. I will be using a hackneyed cliché if I fall into the trap of saying that the 2016 Derby is the most intriguing I have seen in recent years.All I will aver is that there are some very good four year-olds and the race promises to generate a great deal of excitement.
It is always an interesting exercise to separate the serious players from the not-so-serious possibilities. Yes, it is a horse race and on paper, every participant is entitled to the same respect. The fact, however, remains that winnowing the field down will give us a better perspective and help us pinpoint the ones with better than average chances of winning the Derby.
I will offer a comment or two on all the twenty contestants. Let us begin with Airco who has two wins in his career. There is no doubting the fact that he is not in the same league as some of his better accomplished rivals.
B Fifty Two has two victories. This Phoenix Tower progeny won a third race and lost it in the judges' chamber. He has not been exposed to the kind of competition that would make him a frontline contender.
Bold Appeal has won a contest over the Derby distance but it was a three-horse lackluster race. It is difficult to make a case for Bold Appeal.
Bold Command has won three races in his career. He was outclassed in the Indian 2000 Guineas. He has a mountain to climb.
Brilliant Cut is one of the bright stories this winter. He won the Bangalore 2000 Guineas in impressive fashion. In the Bangalore Derby, he took over the running in the lane, looked like a winner and failed to withstand Angel Dust's devastating late charge. Brilliant Cut will be trying to emulate the example of Super Storm in 2013. The Satish Narredu-trained Super Storm, after running second in the Bangalore Derby, provided a spine-chilling upset on India's biggest racing stage. S John will ride Brilliant Cut who will leave from stall four.
Bullrun went through a purple patch in the second part of 2015 that included a shock victory in the Pune Derby. The CoojiKatrak pupil was beaten fair and square by Costa Del Sol in the 2000-metre Velvet Rope Trophy in Mumbai. Questions about Bullrun's readiness linger.
Columbiana brought a smile to Mr D A Nanda's face when landing the 2000-metre Ruia Gold Cup. It was a smart steer by Yash Narredu who had nothing to lose when stealing a march over the others turning for home. The Mallesh Narredu-trained Columbiana has displayed enough class and heart and is slowly but surely finding his place in the top echelons. Draw six should help Columbiana stay close to the lead without being used early. Pat Smullen, the Irish champion rider, has the call.
Costa Del Sol has brought nothing but undiluted happiness to his connections. The Phoenix Tower progeny, a Pesi Shroff trainee, can be held up and has a wicked turn of foot when let loose. He was beaten less than a length by Phoenix Tiger in the Indian 2000 Guineas. In the Velvet Rope Trophy, Costa Del Sol clocked a smart time over 2000 metres and deservedly makes the shortlist. Post two is an advantage in a big field. With the first turn coming up quickly in a 2400-metre race at Mahalakshmi, post two gets added significance. Costa Del Sol is not a closer in the conventional sense. He may be held in midpack. I do not think Costa Del Sol will get shuffled back. The 25 year-old James Doyle flies in. Jockey Doyle, now riding for Godolphin, had two winners at the Meydan in Dubai on Thursday. Very Special and Think Ahead were Doyle's winners. The James Doyle we will see on Sunday will be very different from the one we saw five years ago.
Desert God is trained by the unflappable Padmanabhan. A big-race specialist if ever there was one, Padmanabhan is a master strategist. He planned every step that In The Spotlight took. Desert God ran second to Angel Dust in the Bangalore Summer Derby. Since, Desert God has won the Monsoon Hyderabad Derby and made his adversaries look pedestrian in the Kolkata Derby. On form, Desert God has a lot to find on Phoenix Tiger but given the upward curve he has been on, it is not wise to underestimate his chances. Post 11 should not be a problem. In an ideal situation, the Padmanabhan-trained Desert God should not be far off the pace. Jockey David Allan is not new to the demands of the Derby environment.
Gestapo, a son of Mastercraftsman, was two for two going into the Ruia Cup. He failed to meet expectations. He may deserve the benefit of the doubt but I will venture to say that the Derby will be a big ask for Gestapo. Jim Crowley, after completing two riding assignments at Lingfield on Friday, boards a plane for Mumbai. Gestapo has post five.
Jefferson does not have credentials that would give him mainframe status. At best, he is a marginal possibility.
Magnificence is an outsider and cannot be elevated to higher stature.
Ostwind holds the distinction of beating Phoenix Tiger last summer in Bangalore. That is the only high point in his otherwise ordinary resume.
Phoenix Tiger was a neck shy as the even money favorite in the Ruia Cup. From what I have read and heard, that Ruia loss has made many look elsewhere for the winner of the Derby. It has been reported officially that Phoenix Tiger was not able to keep a straight course in the final part. A pundit has questioned Phoenix Tiger's stamina to get the 2400-metre Derby trip. Some have gone to the extent of saying that the Dallas Todywalla pupil has reached his limits. I do not agree with any of these assertions.
A record that is punctuated by successes at the highest level is what Phoenix Tiger brings into the Derby. A messy race in Bangalore saw Phoenix Tiger lose to Ostwind. In retrospect, we know that it was an aberration. He was a laughing winner in the summer Bangalore Colts Stakes. He won in Pune. He won his first start in Mumbai as he began his 2015-16 campaign. In The Ruia Cup, he was a stride shy with a late move and jockey ColmO'Donoghue may have misjudged the pace. It is as simple as that. I am not permitting myself to read too much into Phoenix Tiger's Ruia loss. Good horses sometimes do not win races they are supposed to for various reasons.
I believe in bloodlines but I do not rely on them entirely to determine a horse's staying ability. I firmly believe that Phoenix Tiger, the pride of the Mistry camp, will have no trouble getting the Derby trip. Jockey O'Donoghue knows what to do. He is an internationally acclaimed rider.
Phoenix Tiger comes out of post 10. Jockey O'Donoghue, given his experience in the Ruia Cup, would like to keep his mount in striking range especially in a big field. There is every reason to think that Phoenix Tiger will race two and three-removed from the rail for the most part. It is not the best way to win races but it may be the best option. Rushing to get good early position has its rewards but the perils are greater.
Then there is Sea Lord. His best effort was in the Ruia Cup when running third. At this point in his career, Sea Lord does not possess the tools needed to win the Derby. Trevor Patel and Sea Lord have post 13.
Setaflame, the Kolkata star, has a noteworthy resume but it lacks the substance and merit to influence me to classify him as a top tier player.
Shadowfax is sharp as hands can have. I will have no detractors when I say that Shadowfax does not measure up to the Derby level. Kevin Manning will be on board.
Now we come to Myrtlewood. She is the one filly whose chances merit earnest examination. The Pesi Shroff-trained Myrtlewood won the Indian 1000 Guineas with authority. She roared thru the lane to win the Indian Oaks. In the Oaks, she and Cameron were in single digits in the wagering. With the others, you could write your own betting card. I hold the belief that the 2015-16 filly crop lacks depth. Jockey P S Chouhan, in the riding form of his life, has formed a great partnership with Myrtlewood.
Myrtlewood will leave from post 12. There is no question that, at some point, the Oaks heroine will be, at least, 15 lengths off the pacesetter. I want to emphasize that a fast-run race will help Myrtlewood's cause.
Shivalik Heroine has an uphill task and it is difficult to be optimistic.
Star Formation is beginning to look exposed. A cursory glance will reveal she will have few friends on Sunday.
Here's my verdict. I am a big believer in current form and established competence in Group races. Columbiana, Desert God, Myrtlewood, Costa Del Sol and Phoenix Tiger form the quintet from which the Indian Derby winner will emerge.
Columbiana's several loud door knocks culminated in the Ruia Cup score. I believe Columbiana does best when close to the lead. He is the 'stalking' type. If the cards fall right, Columbiana has a chance. Mr Nanda's prize four year-old has been flirting with stardom and gets an opportunity to flaunt his stuff in India's most glamorous race.
Desert God has been going from strength to strength. He is trained to the minute. However, Desert God, in my thinking, is a level below the required standard.
Myrtlewoodis the queen of the distaff ranks. As much as her wins in the 1000 Guineas and the Oaks were gained in imperious style, she will find the boys hard to manage. The Derby is generally run at a brisk pace. An ultra quick mile may set the table for Myrtlewood. The faster the pace the better for Myrtlewood. That is Myrtlewood's hope.
Costa Del Sol was finishing on in the Indian 2000 Guineas. Many think that Costa Del Sol was produced a little too late. There is credence to that line of thinking. Was Phoenix Tiger all out? Was O'Donoghue waiting for the wire to come to his rescue? Costa Del Sol's wins show he is out of the top drawer. Based on the 2000 Guineas result, Costa Del Sol does not have much to find on Phoenix Tiger. Yet that narrow margin is not going to easy to bridge.
Phoenix Tiger is what I consider a tiger not in name only. Beginning with his debut, this son of Phoenix Tower has shown he's a high class horse. There is not a single not-so-good effort in his performance lines. He can be rated. He is equally proficient racing in the vanguard. He ticks the right boxes. I saw the Ruia tape. Colm timed his move a split second late. Not keeping a straight path was another thing but I am confident that remedial measures have been taken.
Sticking my neck out is the business I am in. I make picks for a Chicago newspaper. Expressing an opinion is important. Seeing it go wrong is not pleasant but a wonderful learning experience.
I am taking Phoenix Tiger to win Sunday's Indian Derby.
(Disclaimer: The views expressed in this column are the author's personal views.)
