Trends point to Desert God and Phoenix Tiger in Kingfisher Ultra Indian Derby
By Anil Mukhi
And once again it's that time of year when all roads lead to Mumbai's iconic Mahalakshmi Racecourse. On this occasion, the piece de resistance is the 74th running of the Indian Derby.
Other noted writers have held forth in the media on the relative merits of the different runners, but in this piece the focus is strictly on trends. One asks the question "What route has proved most successful over the years?" in the hope that the answer will distil the field to a short list for wagering purposes.
The attached table, which summarizes the past 21 years, is self-explanatory. Let us look at the various angles:
Note: **Details for odds, card and draw nos.in 1998/99 are for SADDLE UP, the winner on the track
Indian Oaks-Indian Derby double: MOONLIGHT ROMANCE, JACQUELINE, AMAZING BAY, STARFIRE GIRL, REVELATION, FAIR HAVEN, ROSE ROYAL, ROSE DE BAHAMA, CHAKORI
Indian 2000 Guineas-Indian Derby double: BE SAFE, JACQUELINE, SMART CHIEFTAN, INDICTMENT, ELUSIVE PIMPERNEL, ASTONISH, EXHILARATION, SIR BRUCE, ALMANAC, ROYAL TERN, SQUANDERER, OUR SELECT, RED RUFUS, PRINCE PRADEEP, LOYAL MANZAR, ALIJAH, ROSE DE BAHAMA, FAIR WOOD, BALCHAND, COMMONER, PRINCESS BEAUTIFUL
Leading Current Trainers*: R.R. Byramji (10 wins), B. Chenoy & S.S. Shah (3 wins each), Altaf Hussain, D.R. Byramji, S. Ganapathy, D. Todywalla (2 each)
Leading Current Jockeys*: J. Fortune (2 wins)
Finish Position in Most Recent Start: 1st - 13, 2nd - 4, 3rd - 3, 5th - 1
*i.e. Lifetime record for those still training/riding
Fillies
Eighteen distaffers have inscribed their names in the scroll of honour and this time there are 3 of that sex in the field. Myrtlewood – who looked so impressive when trouncing her rivals in the Indian Oaks on January 24th – has every chance of adding to that number.
Trainers
As the record shows, several of those with a runner on Sunday have scored in the past. And if they have done it once, surely they know how to do it again? But there is none with a runner here who has dominated his opponents in this race in the manner in which Rashid Byramji did in times gone by – with 11 Indian Derby winners!
Jockeys
The ultra-competitive nature of the race is evident from the fact that no jockey has scored more than once in the past two decades (and still riding) except Jimmy Fortune – and he is not in the field. Previous winners Colm O'Donoghue, David Allan and Suraj Narredu are among those who will have mounts on Sunday in their quest for a double.
Card No.
This is actually a meaningless angle, but it's noteworthy that no horse wearing a saddle cloth with the number '4' embroidered on it has crossed the finish line ahead of all its rivals in the period under review! Make what you will of that little nugget of information...
Field Size
With colossal prize money and enormous prestige riding on the result, a double-digit field is nowadays taken for granted. This year there are 20 acceptors, the largest field since Jeanne d'Arc disposed of 21 opponents in 1948. Unfortunately there are a number of "no-hopers" in the line-up and one hopes that they do not interfere in any way with the better performers. Also a large field means that some of the superior runners might find themselves wide of the rails in the auxiliary gate (see comments on Draw No. below). These are the only ways in which field size can affect the outcome.
Draw No.
With the short run to the Hornby Vellard turn, getting a good position early is important. In a big and unwieldy field those drawn wide tend to lose too much ground and it's worth noting that no horse drawn in double digits has triumphed since 2003. This reverses the previous trend during the first 9 years of this analysis when such runners (i.e. those drawn wider) took home 5 of the renewals. Let's just say on balance that the draw rules out no one but a spot in the inner nine slots would be preferred.
Odds
After eight years (2002-2009) in which punters took a bloodbath, the recently-repatriated Jacqueline came to their rescue in 2010 as an "Evens" favourite and there has been only one rank outsider – Super Storm – in the last 6 years. Earlier trends (prior to 2002) were generally in favour of well-backed horses, which ought to be the case this year as well. It would not be worth accepting "odds-on" about any of the runners in the current field in the unlikely event that there is a hot favourite at post time.
Finish Position in Previous Start
There is a clear trend here – if you were not in the first three last time out, you have scant chance (less than 5%) of hoisting an Indian Derby-winning flag. Of course, it's best if you were coming off a win (62% success). Colombiana, Costa Del Sol, Desert God and Myrtlewood all scored when last seen.
Shippers
Enough horses trained at other centres and shipped in to Mumbai have won to suggest that the burden of travelling does not in any way compromise their chances. Super Storm, In The Spotlight, Diabolical and Southern Regent are testament to that in the past 11 runnings. This year there are half a dozen shippers, namely Bold Command, Brilliant Cut, Desert God, Sea Lord, Setaflame and Star Formation.
Lead-Up Form
What route have trainers taken in the past to ensure success in getting their wards to peak on Indian Derby day? The R.R. Ruia Gold Cup was an outstanding source of Indian Derby winners from 1997 to 2008 but it took till 2015 before that race provided another – the exceptional Be Safe. Overall, the "Ruia" factor goes in favour of the likes of Colombiana, Phoenix Tiger and Sea Lord. The Calcutta Derby has proved to be the best of the regional 2400 m. Derbies, all of which have supplied at least one winner in recent times (barring of course the South India Derby). This augurs well for this year's winner of the Calcutta Derby, Desert God.
Nine of the fair sex have completed the coveted Indian Oaks/Indian Derby double in 73 years but many more (43) have failed – including the last three to have tried, namely Smashing, Isn't She Special and Tiger Tops. Followers of Myrtlewood will therefore need to get a decent price to justify a flutter.
As many as 21 of all Indian Derby winners over the decades had also taken home the Indian 2000 Guineas earlier the same season. Some Indian Derby winners had not run in the Indian 2000 Guineas and vice versa, so an exact percentage is not at hand but the fact of winning the Guineas surely cannot hurt Phoenix Tiger's chances. For what it's worth, a question to his intended rider, Colm O'Donoghue, as to whether his mount would stay 2400 m., was met with the instant response: "I'll win".
Only one – Noble Eagle – emerged as a Derby hero from a handicap in the past 21 years. Followers of Costa Del Sol, who is attempting a similar feat, need to weigh this point. Of course, horses do not know which class of race they have previously run in and the fact that he set a track record for 2000 m. in the afore-mentioned handicap means that "Costa" is no slouch! Indeed, he is a very live threat.
On balance, based purely on recent trends one feels that Desert God and Phoenix Tiger have the best theoretical credentials to win, followed by Myrtlewood and Brilliant Cut.
(Disclaimer: The views expressed in this column are the author's personal views.)
