Can Shared Belief, Toronado and Flintshire deliver on the big stage - By Tom Krish
Posted on - 31 Oct 2014
Can Shared Belief, Toronado and Flintshire deliver on the big stage?
By Tom Krish
I am in my hotel room in Pasadena and it is 1 30 A M Friday Pacific time. My flight from Seattle to Los Angeles was cancelled because of a malfunction in the air conditioning system. My wife and I were given seats in another flight and one of our bags did not make it to Los Angeles. After doing the paper work for the missing bag and a 60-minute ride from the airport, we arrived at our hotel in Pasadena at 4 PM. We left our daughter’s house in Redmond (a Seattle suburb) at 5 AM.
I attended a Breeders’ Cup Party at the Rose Bowl, the stadium where football (American style) games are played. The Rose Bowl Parade (on New Year’s Day) is held in an area close to the stadium. Kenny Mayne, a television sports personality, interviewed Mike Smith, Victot Espinosa and the connections of California Chrome, John Velasquez and Gary Stevens. I would rate these four among the top 15 jockeys in the world.
It was a day when everything went wrong but there was a redeeming element as the day ended. I got a word or two with all the four riders. Mike Smith, savvy and articulate, gave nothing away but seemed upbeat about Shared Belief’s chances in the BC Classic on Saturday. Victor Espinosa, while expressing his delight at the way California Chrome has been working, joked that he became California Chrome’s rider because no other jockey wanted the mount. John Velasquez exuded confidence without being cocky about his mounts. I remarked to John Velasquez that he is one of the best in the world and made a comment that he spoke English like an English professor. He was absolutely thrilled. Gary Stevens is a great ambassador for horse racing and my question to him related to how long he intended to stay in the sport. Stevens is 51 years old. “I am not retiring soon. I am not retiring in five years. I am not going to tell you how long.”
The Press Center at Courtyard Marriott is well organized. There are press releases. Past Performances are available. There is enough information about the Breeders’ Cup to help a student do a research project. Internet is available. Bus schedules are given to the media. There are shuttle buses going back and forth between the hotel and Santa Anita racecourse. There is a work area. Members of the media, from all over the world, are fed very well. There is breakfast. There is dinner with liquor a major part of the deal. The dining area is adjacent to the Press Center. Lunch is provided at Santa Anita. It is a complete package and the credit for organizing all this goes to Jim Gluckon, Director of Media Relations for Breeders’ Cup Limited.
I will pick up where I left off in my last report. With the scratch of American Pharoah, the Todd Pletcher-trained Daredevil is the favorite in the BC Juvenile Dirt over 1700 metres. A son of More Than Ready, Daredevil has had two starts and he has won them both. Daredevil made a winning debut (by six lengths) and won the Grade I Champagne Stakes (1600 metres)by two and one half lengths in 1 36.62 on a sloppy track at Saratoga. Javier Castellano is the rider.
There is another Todd Pletcher trainee in the Juvenile. It is Carpe Diem. A Giant’s Causeway colt, Carpe Diem broke maiden at Saratoga on September 1. In his second outing, Carpe Diem was a going-away winner in the 1700-meter Grade I BC Futurity at Keeneland on October 4. The time was 1 43.38 seconds. I strongly believe that Todd Pletcher will win this race.
The next race is the Longines BC Turf over 2400 metres. With the withdrawal of Magician, there are 12 runners. Telescope, with Ryan Moore in the saddle, is in form and will have a big following. Flintshire, second to Ruler of The World on September 14 and then second to Treve in the Arc on October 5, is likely to be the public choice at post time. MaximeGuyon will ride the Andre Fabre charge. Main Sequence has won his last three (all Group Ones) in New York and John Velasquez replaces Rajiv Maragh who is hurt. Chicquita, with Frankie Dettori, did not keep a straight course when looking like a winner in the Filly-Mare (2400 metres) race on Champions Day at Ascot. She has an outside chance.
I believe that Flintshire has a little extra class. Jockey Guyon is a rider for big occasions. Despite his youth, he has tremendous decision-making skills. Andre Fabre, champion trainer in France (how many times I do not know) and a legend, has found a great spot for the Khalid Abdullah-owned Flintshire who is a Dansili colt.
Now we come to the BC Sprint Dirt over 1200 metres. Secret Circle won this race last year. He defends the title. Martin Garcia rides. Rich Tapestry carries Hong Kong’s hopes and beat Secret Circle and Golden Cents in the Grade I Santa Anita Sprint on October 4. Palace has an enviable record in Group I sprints and makes the shortlist. Cornelio Velasquez will be the jockey. I do not have a recommendation.
Toronado heads the cast in the BC Turf Mile. There is a full field of 14 runners. Richard Hughes made it clear to me that it was Toronado that provided the inspiration for his trip to America. Toronado, a High Chaparral colt (four year-old), lost by a head to Charm Spirit at Longchamp on September 14.Charm Spirit, in his next race.beat Night Of Thunder in the Q E II Cup at Ascot on Champions’ Day. In the Sussex Stakes at Goodwood( a course I have fallen in love with) on July 30, Toronado was a length off Kingman. Toronado’s record is such that I find it difficult to oppose him.
Anodin, Olivier Peslier up, is being mentioned discreetly in some quarters. The Anabaa colt represents the much feared Head-Peslier team. In 2014.Anodin has not won in five 2014 starts. He has a hill to climb.
Now we get to the finale. Shared Belief, with a seven for seven record, is the 18/10 favorite. The Candy Ride sophomore was taken off the Triple Crown trail because of an injury. He has come back good as gold. He has three Group I wins in his resume. I am a big believer in home court advantage.
Bayern is brilliant when on song. He is a front runner. When he loses, he loses badly. In a five million-dollar race, Bayern is unlikely to have a pressure-free lead.
Tonalist, Joel Rosario’s mount and a son of Tapit, has wins in the Grade I Belmont Stakes and the Grade I Jockey Club Gold Cup. He is a legitimate contender.
Then there is California Chrome. Vincent Dhanraj, the commentator at Guindy, fancies California Chrome. Here’s a story that has captured the imagination of the racing world. His wins in the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness were impressive. A physical problem resulted in a fourth place finish in the BelmntStaks. In the Pennsylvania Derby on September 20 at the Parx, the Art Sherman-trained colt ran listlessly as the 9/10 chalk. The Classic will need a considerable step-up in his game and I do believe he will be found inadequate.
Does Shared Belief warrant a wager? He will be short-priced. Yes, he knows Santa Anita but the fact remains the Classic field is so much deeper than what he has faced and beaten. The Classic will be a great race to watch.
On Friday and Saturday, after the races, watch and listen to the press conferences. You will hear me ask questions.
There are several hours left before the BC races get under way. Please send your first two picks in all the 13 races. A cap (carrying the name of a prestigious American Grade I race) will be your reward if you have the most winners. Send your picks to harnesskrish@yahoo.,com
