Hi readers,
I believe a public tipster should be judged by what he says before the race--and with how much conviction, and whether the results reflect those opinions to be true in a reasonable percentage of races.
The only way to do that with transparency is to keep records. There is no substitute for accountability.
A step has been taken in this direction with regard to this tipping column, and you can now see a link on the right hand side on the home page of this site, titled, "The Prakash Gosavi Column", which will take you to the archives of all articles (both previews & reviews) written by me for each race day.
Please feel free to send your feedback using the bottom link in the same column.
Race 1:
The Au Panache Plate
Class IV; 20-46, 1600m
Time: 1.30 pm
The contenders:
#1 Swift Memories:
Why a contender?: Fairly consistent. Won fluently over longer trip last time, after change of equipment. Racing at the same class level. Can repeat.
Negatives: None.
Positives: Top, dependable jockey who partnered in last victory.
#3 Rose Heaven:
Why a contender?: Benefit of run over identical trip this season. Lost narrowly last time.
Negatives: Lost to a younger horse last time, now facing two three-year-olds.
Positives: A slight positive jockey switch.
#4 Capre Diem:
Why a contender?: Debut run at Pune not bad. Most horses improve dramatically in second lifetime start. Au Panache, after whom the race is named, was also owned by the same owner, so there could be an emotional reason to this effort.
Negatives: Slowly out on debut. Encountering the Mahalaxmi track for the first time.
Positives: Coming from the champion trainer's yard. Tracking well.
Analysis: Capre Diem may be fancied strongly as this is a moderate set. But I am looking at the race another way. A recent winner who hasn't done anything wrong, has been consistent and is being ridden by the best jockey in this set, why can't we pin faith on her? I am talking about Swift Memories. True, she has to give considerable weight to Capre Diem, and that could prove to be an issue at the wire. But if the odds are attractive, I think it's worth the risk.
Selections: Swift Memories 1, Capre Diem 2, Rose Heaven 3.
Bettable?: Yes, if the odds are 2/1 or better.
----
Race 2:
The Dangerous Liason Plate
For 4y; Class V; 1-26, 1200m
Time: 2 pm
The contenders:
#1 Daughterofdestiny:
Why a contender?: A winner at the same age & class level albeit over a furlong extra. A shade better than rivals on the class factor.
Negatives: Top weight; doesn't possess good early speed, trip is too sharp for her.
Positives: Good turn of foot.
#2 Laurus Tikati:
Why a contender?: Good forward last run in higher class, can outpace this set with ease.
Negatives: Except the last run, all previous runs were bad.
Positives: Back to racing in 11 days; can retain current fitness.
#3 Star Burst:
Why a contender?: Failed favourite last time, was slowly out, good preparation.
Negatives: Not placed in 4 starts so far.
Positives: Apprentice claims 5 kg, has won a race this season.
#6 Tysea:
Why a contender?: A winner over this trip last season. Benefit of a run last week.
Negatives: May need this run to strip fitter.
Positives: Showed speed in last run after a long time perhaps due to equipment change (BLK, TS on), which continues.
Analysis: If Laurus Tikati can reproduce the last run, he can win this race from Star Burst who has a question mark in my notebook. Daughterofdestiny could upset if she is within 3 lengths of the leader at the furlong post.
Selections: Laurus Tikati 1, Star Burst 2, Tysea 3.
Bettable?: Not really, unless Laurus Tikati goes over 3/1 which will be value for money.
----
Race 3:
The Fair Always Plate - Div II
Class V; 1-26, 1400m
Time: 2.30 pm
The contenders:
#5 Daredevil:
Why a contender?: Finished on purposefully over six furlongs in last run at Pune, extra ground should be to advantage.
Negatives: Only one track work in 41 days after the last run.
Positives: Switching to top rider.
#6 Lady Genereuse:
Why a contender?: Consistent, on the board in last 3 runs.
Negatives: Rookie in saddle.
Positives: Last run extremely good, very strong contender if you can ignore the jockey.
#9 Golden Kingdom:
Why a contender?: Consistent. Runner up in last two runs.
Negatives: Seventh jockey to ride in last seven runs.
Positives: Bottom weight could prove a factor in this set.
Analysis: Looking at the horse-jockey combination, Daredevil qualifies on both. But if Ishwar Pardeshi tries runaway tactics, Lady Genereuse might win uncontested.
Selections: Lady Genereuse 1, Daredevil 2, Golden Kingdom 3.
Bettable?: Jockey does not inspire confidence, else Lady Genereuse was a definite bet here.
----
Race 4:
The Astonish Trophy
Class 1; 80 & upwards, 1600m
Time: 3 pm
The contenders:
#1 Clarion Call:
Why a contender?: Has run ahead of Star Alliance in race #63 at Pune over today's trip.
Negatives: Oldest in the set, last 3 runs over trips too long.
Positives: Showed fighting instinct in last run which was a two-horse race.
#2 Star Alliance:
Why a contender?: Tracking well, rider gaining confidence at Mahalaxmi.
Negatives: Unreliable.
Positives: Rider can make a difference in tight finish.
#3 Kilifi:
Why a contender?: Finished very close third to Black Magic Woman & Forest Flair over sprint. Must have stripped fitter.
Negatives: Pet distance is 1200-1400, mile may not suit as well.
Positives: Current fitness could see him through if lucky.
#4 Dear Henry:
Why a contender?: Mock race (Nov 17) very good, receives weight from older horses, that could be a huge factor.
Negatives: Was fancied in both last runs, but let down.
Positives: Blinkers off for the first time during the last run, may run an improved race.
Analysis: Am I out of my mind listing every horse as a contender? But frankly, none of them has been a reliable, consistent horse, and in a four-horse race pace could turn out to be tricky which might throw up a shock result.
Selections: Dear Henry 1, Star Alliance 2.
Bettable?: NO.
----
Race 5:
The Naukhal Plate
Class II; 60-86, 1200m
Time: 3.30 pm
The contenders:
#1 Orito:
Why a contender?: A fluent winner in both his last starts over the same trip. On the upgrade.
Negatives: None.
Positives: Winning rider in saddle again, can complete hat-trick.
#3 Oriental Charm:
Why a contender?: Though 6th, ran only 3-1/4 lengths behind Picasso on debut at Pune. Prepared well.
Negatives: Bad gate manners at the time of debut, rider not a mainstream jockey in races now.
Positives: Excellent preparation, second lifetime start, so can show improvement.
#4 Beyond Stars:
Why a contender?: Won very easy last time, rider offsets half the penalty thanks to allowance.
Negatives: Relishes 1400m more than 1200m; has not done well at Mahalaxmi.
Positives: Doesn't concede easily after taking charge.
#5 Class Apart:
Why a contender?: Did very well up to class III; but flopped in class II. A strong contender here because whatever the label (class II) of this race, with top weight rated at 69 points, it's closer to class III in reality, isn't it?
Negatives: None.
Positives: Facing horses promoted from lower class for the first time.
Analysis: I am discounting Beyond Stars because of the negatives I have listed under her, and I think Orito may find it very difficult to give weight to Class Apart who has won two of her three races over today's trip. And what about Oriental Charm? No doubt, the foreign import has been prepared very well, but a lay-off of 3-1/2 months puts me off.
Selections: Class Apart 1, Orito 2, Beyond Stars 3.
Bettable?: I think Class Apart is bound to be in 1-2, and odds will be generous, so definitely worth an each way bet.
----
Race 6:
The A Campbell Trophy - Div II
For 3y, maidens; 1000m.
Time: 4 pm
The contenders:
#3 Aflame:
Why a contender?: Runner up in last 2 starts, last run behind Follow The Dream was best of all
Negatives: None.
Positives: Showing improvement with every successive run.
#4 Besame Mucho:
Why a contender?: Far superior to her rivals on the class factor, rider in brilliant form at the moment.
Negatives: Lacks blazing early speed, trip could prove too short for her style of running.
Positives: Has run with far better company than her rivals have faced.
#6 Highway Express:
Why a contender?: Has fair early speed, being ridden by top jockey.
Negatives: Temperamental, quits under pressure.
Positives: For the first time, gets the same rider (that too, a top rider) for two consecutive runs.
#8 Springbank:
Why a contender?: Has displayed speed on this track in all 3 runs last season.
Negatives: Did nothing at Pune
Positives: Despite being slowly out in last start, finished close to Aflame and ahead of Highway Star.
Analysis: If Besame Mucho had good early speed, this would not have been a race. But in 3 out of 4 starts she has failed to display early speed, and this being a five-furlong sprint, therefore, becomes a somewhat contentious race as all her rivals listed above possess early speed and may try to outpace her.
Selections: Besame Mucho 1, Aflame 2, Springbank 3.
Bettable?: Besame Mucho may go out at cramped odds, so not bettable.
---
Race 7:
The Fair Always Plate - Div I
Class V; 1-26, 1400m
Time: 4.30 pm
The contenders:
#3 Fairy Queen:
Why a contender?: Twice runner up, has been on the board in 4 of the 8 starts, that's a good level of consistency in this set.
Negatives: None.
Positives: Relatively consistent.
#4 Saifeena:
Why a contender?: The run behind Agni Baan was good enough to fancy her here. Now choosing to run 7 furlongs after trying a mile. Good training pattern.
Negatives: Short on experience compared to other runners, running after 46 days, no track work listed since last run.
Positives: Can tackle this set if fit.
#6 Augustus:
Why a contender?: Has raced in far better company than the rivals have. Tracking very well.
Negatives: Always finished more than 8, 10, sometimes 15 lengths behind the winner.
Positives: Very good preparation.
#7 Free For All:
Why a contender?: Benefit of a run over same trip on this track, finished 3rd in the hands of a non-regular jockey.
Negatives: Excessively whipped in last run to finish 3rd.
Positives: Massive positive jockey switch--from V Phadke to Kavraj Singh.
Analysis: A very tricky race. Winner should, hopefully, emerge from the horses I have listed.
Selections: Augustus 1, Free For All 2, Fairy Queen 3.
Bettable?: NO.
---
Race 8:
The A Campbell Trophy - Div I
For 3y, maidens; 1000m.
Time: 5 pm
The contenders:
#6 Coccinella:
Why a contender?: Ran unshod on debut, fair run considering she was diagnosed for respiratory infection later. Excellent preparation.
Negatives: None.
Positives: Positive jockey switch.
#7 Festival Night:
Why a contender?: Finished fourth on debut. Can improve on that run.
Negatives: None to speak of.
Positives: Tracking well, looks fit.
Analysis: Coccinella looks extremely well prepared, will be hard to toss.
Selections: Coccinella 1, Festival Knight 2, Oluchi 3.
Bettable?: NO, the odds on Coccinella may be too cramped to compensate the risk that is always attached with any horse coming out of respiratory infection.
----
Race 9:
The Secret Star Plate
For 5y&over, IV, 20-46; 1200m.
Time: 5.30 pm
The contenders:
#1 Lago Medio:
Why a contender?: Far superior on class. Has won in same age group in higher class in April on this same track.
Negatives: Jockey choice strange.
Positives: No track since last run 40 days ago.
#3 Generalissimo:
Why a contender?: Benefit of a recent run on this track. A dark horse who can upset in this set.
Negatives: Oldest in the field.
Positives: Apprentice handling him has good form.
#4 Marine Zone:
Why a contender?: Excellent turn of foot, displayed recently in last but one run. Knocking at the door.
Negatives: Moves up too late sometimes.
Positives: Champion jockey astride.
Analysis: Marine Zone is the horse to beat. Has an excellent chance in this set with Dashrath Singh astride.
Selections: Marine Zone 1, Generalissimo 2, Lago Medio 3.
Bettable?: Consider Marine Zone as a bet if not first favourite.
(Disclaimer: The views expressed in this column are the author’s personal views.)
