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Analysis of Mumbai races (Sunday, April 6, 2014) by Prakash Gosavi
(Note: This column is meant as an aid for casual race goers, not for serious bettors.)
First race @ 2.45 pm
The Samuel Nathan Plate
(Class V, 1-26; 1400m)
Despite a sluggish jump (race #244), Mt Tianmen quickly improved to lead the field, and was always with the pace until losing narrowly in a rather close finish. With Thunder Star, winner of that race, narrowly losing the next start (#289)—and more importantly, with both Capilano and Mambo Magic fluently winning their next races (Mambo Magic, in fact, won yet another race in higher class)—it is clear that whosoever has to win this race will have to beat Mt Tianmen.
I feel the only horse that can perhaps pose some danger to Mt Tianmen is Quando Quando, whose last run was actually very good, though she finished more than seven lengths behind the winner. While Strike Again (formerly Suzonia) may have some supporters, the one who can figure in place at lucrative odds may turn out to be Always There.
Selections: Mt Tianmen 1, Quando Quando 2, Always There 3.
Recommended as bet: None
Second race @ 3.15 pm
The Bangalore Turf Club Ltd Trophy
(Class I, 80 & upwards; 1600m)
If this race is decided only on the inherent "Class" factor, Acclaimed should win it hands down.
But if you take into account the "condition" factor, then the 200-day lay-off from racing steps in as a factor of concern. Curiously, after his victory in the Colts' Championship at Hyderabad, Acclaimed was blazing during the pre-Classics preparation, but suddenly went out of training after Dec 7 last year, skipping the Classic campaign altogether, hinting that the reason must have been serious enough to put him out of training and racing.
He then comes out of hibernation this week, registers two spurts, and is pitched into the fray by the champion trainer who must know what he is doing. We will most possibly see Acclaimed resuming his winning ways on Sunday, but it is a moot point if he can be supported as a bet; as despite the history, he is bound to open as a hot favourite (the night odds are not yet out, so I don't have any idea).
Selections: Acclaimed 1, Mint Approach 2, Spirit Of Mercy 3.
Recommended as bet: None
Third race @ 3.45 pm
The Sion F. Nessim Plate
Though Belvedere, despite breeding, hasn't done much to earn any awesome reputation, the fact is here she is facing such opposition that she should not have much difficulty in giving them weight and a beating. The only issue could be the price, and if too miserly, most may not find it agreeable.
Selections: Belvedere 1, Dixie Delight 2, Fleetwood Mac 3.
Recommended as bet: Belvedere for WIN
Fourth race @ 4.15 pm
The V P Koregaonkar Plate
(Class III, 40-66; 1200m)
Wild Waves, bidding for a hat-trick over the same trip, will perhaps have most followers, and may be installed as firm favourite. To the trio of Vanguard, Ultrasonic and Wasabi who will most probably be considered his main challengers, I will add one more horse—Ice Skater—who, I think, is running with an upset chance.
Actually, I was eagerly waiting for Vanguard to show up again after his last victory, but now that he has taken three-and-a-half months to do so makes me feel a little uneasy—though his latest spurts are quite satisfactory. Had it not been for the lay-off, I would have definitely recommended a thumping bet on him.
Selections: Vanguard 1, Wild Waves 2, Ice Skater 3.
Recommended as bet: None
Fifth race @ 4.45 pm
The Bahrain Trophy
(Terms, for 3y; 1000m)
Can Greek God give 8-1/2 kg to Koalaa?
On that question will hinge the outcome of this race. Not that there are no other contenders—in fact, Heart Of The City & Hudson Hawk, impressive winners over this trip, could prove very formidable challengers if they have come up further in condition.
But since Greek God is clearly the best-performed juvenile in this line-up, and the fact that a juvenile at this stage of career can give weight to another ONLY IF he is endowed with far better class, his performance against Koalaa (who has been knocking at the door), will most likely decide the winner of this race.
My vote (and money) goes to Greek God.
Selections: Greek God 1, Hudson Hawk 2, Koalaa 3.
Recommended as bet: Greek God for WIN
Sixth race @ 5.15 pm
The Karl Umrigar Trophy
(Terms, for 3y, maidens; 1400m)
Angeling—and perhaps Pepito, who dropped the rider in last start—are the only two who have performed somewhat fairly among the juveniles that have raced, so there is a very good chance that one of the first-timers can gain the day.
Going by the preparation, Mystic Romance and Godspeed can put their best foot forward on debut, but Revlon may trick them all—after all, Pesi Shroff is obviously going to leave no stone unturned in trying to win the trophy named after his bro-in-law, the late Karl Umrigar—the greatest riding sensation to grace the Indian turf.
Selections: Revlon 1, Angeling 2, Godspeed 3. Upset: Pepito
Recommended as bet: None
Seventh race @ 5.45 pm
The M.D. Petit Plate - Division I
(Class IV, 20-46; 1200m)
Being the only last-outing winner in the fray, and a fluent one at that, Neptune's Ocean is a prime contender for the top spot. True, she will be stretching herself over an extra furlong, but I feel that should not be much of a concern when she is racing at the same class level.
Though Mountain Prince, Tempest and San Rafael have recently registered good speed, the one Neptune's Ocean will have to be wary of is the unpredictable Archimedes who is still a maiden despite racing as hot favourite in three of his five starts.
The night odds have just come in, and going by them, this looks like an open race with Neptune's Ocean being listed at a 3/1. Time to make a killing, I feel.
Selections: Neptune's Ocean 1, Archimedes 2, Tempest 3.
Recommended as bet: Neptune's Ocean for WIN
Eighth race @ 6.15 pm
The M.D. Petit Plate - Division II
(Class IV, 20-46; 1200m)
There is absolutely no doubt that Nature Boy ran a superb race last time, and deserves to be nominated as a prime contender for the top spot. However, there are two more horses that need a closer look: Mateus Rose & Seven Seas.
Especially Mateus Rose whose last effort was not only her best this season, but even going by the raw numbers, it was quite extra-ordinary. I feel convinced she will not go down without a fight whosoever tries to win.
Selections: Mateus Rose 1, Nature Boy 2, Seven Seas 3.
Recommended as bet: None
(Disclaimer: The views expressed in this column are the author’s personal views.)
