American Pharoah now odds on: Golden Horn a " victory is formality " favorite - By Tom Krish
Posted on - 30 Oct 2015
American Pharoah now odds on: Golden Horn a 'victory isformality' favorite
By Tom Krish
Let us take a look at Saturday’s Breeders’ Cup races.
The first BC race is the Juvenile Dirt Sprint. The 3/1 favorite is Sheikh Of Sheikhs. A smart winner in his debut, the Discreetly Mine colt flopped in the Grade I Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland on a ‘muddy’ track. I am hopeful that Sheikh Of Sheikhs will be seen in better light on a fast surface.
Richie The Bull broke the duck in his Arlington debut and won a first level allowance in Keeneland. Dan The Go To Man ran second in his Ellis Park debut and won going away in his second start in Keeneland on a ‘muddy’ track. I do not have a selection.
Next comes the Juvenile Filles over 1700 metres on the dirt. Songbird is three for three and already a dual Group I winner. She comes from California and is trained by Jerry Hollendorfer. Mike Smith, a Hall Of Famer, will be the jockey.
By Bernardini out of Rachel Alexandra, Rachel’s Valentina has raced twice at Saratoga and won both starts. It is the formidable Todd Pletcher-John Velasquez team.
Nickname, by Scat Daddy, was a lackluster fourth in her debut. She was a runaway winner second time out. In her third outing, she stalked the leader and forged ahead to win the Group I Frizette by three and one half lengths.
My pick is Rachel’s Valentina.
The BC Turf Sprint (1100 metres) follows. It is a full field of 14 horses. Lady Shipman, by Midshipman, won four in a row beginning with a Monmouth Park win on June 15. In her most recent start, she led until the waning yards. She has drawn five and is loaded with speed. Irad Ortiz Jr rides for Kathleen O’Connell.
Then comes the 1400-metre BC Filly and Mare Sprint on the dirt. La Verdad, Cavorting and Stonetastic have imposing records. Judy The Beauty won this race last year. In 2015, she has not won in three starts and she was the favorite every time. I do not have a selection.
The 1900-metre Bc Filly and Mare Turf is next. There are 12 runners. The 16/10 favorite and rightly so is Legatissimo. The Danehill Dancer filly has three wins and three seconds in her last six starts. She is bonafide Group I material. She won the English 1000 at Newmarket. She was second in the Epsom Oaks and in the Pretty Polly Stakes at the Curragh. In Goodwood’s Nassau Stakes, she was an easy winner. On September 12 at Leopardstown, Legatissimo won the Matron Stakes with authority. The David Wachman-trained Legatissimo will be ridden by Ryan Moore.
Miss France, from Andre Fabre’s barn, is the second choice. A Dansili filly, she has been a model of consistency. She has been the bridesmaid in her last four ventures. This is only Miss France’s third start in 2015. In the Group II Prix Daniel Wildenstein on October 3 at Longchamp, Miss France was beaten one half length by Impassable. Frankie Dettoripartners Miss France.
Legatissimo’s credentials are glittering. Her reliability and her form adverise her claims. I am jumping on the bandwagon.
We now come to the BC (1200 metres) Dirt Sprint. Private Zone, though drawn 13, is in the form of his life. He is fast. I like his chances. Martin Pedroza rides for Jorge Navarro.
The key concern for Private Zone is Runhappy. The Super Saver colt has five races in his last six starts. He is fit as hands can have. Edgar Prado has the riding call.
Next comes the intriguing BC Turf Mile. Make Believe, Olivier Peslier up, has a lot of appeal. Andre Fabre trains Make Believe.
Trainer Fabre also has Esoterique, a five year-old daughter of Danehill Dancer. Esoterique won Deauville’s Jacques le Marois and Newmarket’s Sun Chariot on October 3. She cannot be in better form. Pierre C Boudot, a promising French jockey, rides.
Karakontie, Stephane Pasquier’s mount, is the defending champion. In two 2015 starts, Karakonite has not shown that 2014 form.
I give Make Believe the edge.
The next race is the BC 1700-metre Juvenile Dirt. A Doug O’Neill trainee, Nyquist brings a perfect four for four record from California. The Uncle Mo colt has been ultra impressive. Mario Gutierrez rides.
Brody’s Cause, a Giant’s Causeway colt, had a disappointing debut. He won next time out at Churchill Downs. In Keeneland’s Group I Breeders’ Futurity, Brody’s Cause came roaring through the lane in the mud to score in sensational style.
Then there is Greenpointcrusader who has two wins from three starts. With Joe Bravo in the saddle, Greenpointcrusader won Belmont Park’s Champagne Stakes by four and one half lengths. He is a big possibility.
This is a very difficult race.
Golden Horn is the 4/5 favorite in the next race, the BC Turf over 2400 metres. A Cape Cross colt, Golden Horn has been beaten once in his brilliant career. His win in the Arc had to be seen to be believed. Post one may not pose a problem. Golden Horn can stay with the leaders. I see no chinks in Golden Horn’s armor. Frankie Dettori rides and John Gosden trains.
The final race in the BC card is the 2000-metre (dirt) Classic. Beholder’s defection paves the way for an American Pharoah victory. In the Travers Stakes at Saratoga, American Pharoah and Frosted staged a duel and Keen Ice became the third party beneficiary. Victor Espinoza, I am sure, will consider the Travers a learning experience. Post four should open up a lot of options. If the Classic is run 100 times, American Pharoah will win it 90 times. The odds, however, will be prohibitive.
Please watch the BC races on You Tube. They are worth watching. They are the best horses in the world and the best jockeys in the world are riding them.
(Disclaimer: The views expressed in this column are the author's personal views.)
