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Preview of Races to be run on 23rd February 2012
Race 1:
The Blurr Plate – Div II
Class V, 1-26; 1000m
Time: 1.45 pm
Analysis: Fortuner who, after a long time, showed early speed in last run in higher class, now looks ready to strike in the bottom class over a sprint. Hormuz Antia (by the way, this trainer has some very live horses racing in many races, keep a watch!) has entrusted him to Akshay who has already ridden two winners for him from 5 mounts. Aleutian Zone, Peregrine Falcon, Arabian Star, and perhaps the bottom-weighted Watch Out, seem to be the horses who may attempt to match strides with Fortuner and, in the process, end up fighting for the minor places.
Selections: Fortuner 1, Aleutian Zone 2, Peregrine Falcon 3.
Bettable?: YES. Fortuner appeals both on class and speed factors, and also has a good, in-form apprentice to guide him. He definitely shapes as a good bet in this set if available at 6/4 or better.
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Race 2:
The Flying Brave Plate – Div II
Class V, 1-26; 1600m
Time: 2.15 pm
Analysis:A very contentious race. Perhaps barring Hills And Dales, every other horse has some chance to pull it off if he or she runs its best race from the past. Here again, though Guernica will be most strongly fancied, I will side with Antia’s Cougar, who looks like an each way chance to me in the hands of apprentice M A Roushan. This lad has got a mature head over his shoulders, and he can therefore be relied upon to judge the pace better than anyone else in this field.
Selections: Cougar 1, Guernica 2, Lola 3.
Bettable?: Perhaps. But only if Cougar goes out at big odds to make sense as an each way bet.
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Race 3:
The Blurr Plate – Div I
Class V, 1-26; 1000m
Time: 2.45 pm
Analysis:I have very simple advice for this race—watch the odds of Sweaty Betty. If she comes in for genuine support, she can score in this set with ease, because she has in her what it takes to win. The only thing is that, so far, the connections have not pinned faith in her for whatever reasons—in fact, the last time, her odds drifted like a helium-filled balloon and her performance matched the drift. Having said that, the others who can strike are Fairy Queen, Winchester and Harzeliyah.
Selections: Sweaty Betty 1, Herzeliyah 2, Fairy Queen 3.
Bettable?:NO. If Sweaty Betty comes in for support, then it’s your call and it’s your risk.
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Race 4:
The Flying Brave Plate – Div I
Class V, 1-26; 1600m
Time: 3.15 pm
Analysis:Carlyle Hills may be installed as a strong favourite, without commensurately strong reason, I feel. Atlantic Star is the one who bears close watching. Ashwa Apollo, at best, looks like a place prospect. However, Savage Garden, who has been running ‘with the pace’ in all his recent outings, may have stripped much fitter thanks to those runs, and with Dashrath Singh now to guide him, the Narendra Lagad ward can be expected to put his best foot forward—he CAN upset.
Selections: Savage Garden 1, Atlantic Star 2, Carlyle Hills 3.
Bettable?: NO.
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Race 5:
The Brave Hunter Plate
For 5y & over, class III, 40-66; 1000m
Time: 3.45 pm
Analysis:This is one race where the Antia runners can, with little luck, finish 1-2-3. The question is who among them has the best winning chance? I think it should be Albuurz, because like Mystic Temple, his last five runs are all in class III; but unlike Mystic Temple, he has finished within 5 lengths of the winner in last two starts in open company. Now, in the race reserved for 5y&over, Albuurz tempts as a very good bet. From outside the Antia yard, only Crème De La Crème really has the kind of early speed to count over five furlongs, and may be treated as the dark horse.
Selections: Albuurz 1, Red Passion 2, Mystic Temple 3.
Bettable?: YES, Albuurz can be regarded as a very good bet in this set.
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Race 6:
The Captain G Hall Trophy
For 5y & over, class II, 60-86; 1400m
Time: 4.15 pm
Analysis:The winner should, ideally, emerge from the quartet of Batista, Royal Highness, Venus Rosewater and Oceanic Wisdom. The last-named, only because she had a very good rehearsal in a sprint won by Amadeus, can be deemed to have an edge that may prove decisive at the wire in the hands of Richard Hughes.
Selections: Oceanic Wisdom 1, Royal Highness 2, Venus Rosewater 3.
Bettable?: NO.
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Race 7:
The M D Mehta Trophy – Div II
For 3y, maidens; 1000m
Time: 4.45 pm
Analysis:Edwina is the horse to beat here. She ran an excellent second on debut, and then was fooled, like 10 other horses, by the victorious march stolen by Victorious March. Here, unless the first timers are something special, she faces quite ordinary opposition, and therefore, attracts as the day’s best betting proposition.
Selections: Edwina 1, Mzima 2, Blue Wonder 3.
Bettable?: YES, Edwina can be considered the day’s best bet if odds on her are not too miserly.
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Race 8:
The Red Buttons Plate
Class IV, 20-46; 1600m
Time: 5.15 pm
Analysis:Too much may be read into the fact that Mountain Queen, even with Chandrakant in saddle, finished an interesting fourth on debut. Now with her original master Cooji Katrak back to shape her destiny, and Richard Hughes to guide her, she may be installed as a hot favourite for this race.
While I really don’t have anything against her, I wish to humbly point out that statistical evidence is heavily stacked against horses that were 40/1 in last start (like Mountain Queen was) and first favourite in next run (like Mountain Queen may be today), because in most cases such horses have failed to carry favouritism to victory.
Having said that, Purple Patch who won his last start has done nothing wrong, and may be able to make light of the penalty imposed by the official handicapper for his last win, which, incidentally, like statutory penalty, is only 6 kg.
Selections: Purple Patch 1, Mountain Queen 2, So Royal 3.
Bettable?: NO.
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Race 9:
The M D Mehta Trophy – Div I
For 3y, maidens; 1000m
Time: 5.45 pm
Analysis:In this race Glorious Song, technically, should be as attractive as Edwina looked in the lower division of the same race. But there is a difference. The opposition here—Piano Man, Kimberly Emerald and Home Factor—may run a vastly improved race; even the first-timer like Eskimo could upset, coming as he does from the champion trainer Pesi Shroff’s yard.
Selections: Glorious Song 1, Eskimo 2, Home Factor 3.
Bettable?: If Glorious Song is a cramped on-money favourite, she may not represent value for money.
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Race 10:
The Noble Opinion Plate
For 4y, class IV, 20-46; 1000m
Time: 6.15 pm
Analysis:The speedy Royal Honour can win this sprint. The danger could come from Stuntacular or Festival Night. The run of Springbank, who is not sighted on the trial track, should be watched for the future.
Selections: Royal Honour 1, Stuntacular 2, Festival Night 3.
Bettable?: NO.
(Disclaimer: The views expressed in this column are the author’s personal views.)
